Clover Health Investments Corp. (CLOV)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.260.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CLOV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -48.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 32.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 80.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CLOV — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 5, 2026, Clover Health Investments, Corp. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information set forth in this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” fo…
Why it matters: Changes in leaders can change company goals and affect investor trust.
Worry ifA new CEO is named, giving clear leadership direction.
Less concerning ifNo new CEO is named, causing ongoing uncertainty.
Why it matters: GAAP profitability matters. It builds trust with investors and helps future growth.
Supportive ifQ3 GAAP Net Income of at least $20 million.
Worry ifQ3 GAAP Net Income below $20 million.
Why it matters: The court ruling on the Star Rating impacts future payments and overall financial health.
Worry ifCourt ruling confirms a higher Star Rating for Clover Insurance.
Less concerning ifCourt ruling maintains or lowers the 2026 Star Rating.
Why it matters: More usage can lead to better health results and better member costs.
Supportive ifClover Assistant usage metrics show a big increase from last quarter.
Worry ifClover Assistant usage metrics are flat or lower compared to last quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$257 on $10,000 · ±2.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $494 loss on $10,000 · 4.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,550 loss on $10,000 · 55.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is important for Clover's finances and future plans.
Supportive ifManagement says total revenue grew by 49% from last year for 2026.
Worry ifTotal revenue growth is less than 30% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Membership growth is key to revenue targets and overall business health.
Supportive ifMedicare Advantage will have 154,000 to 158,000 members by the end of 2026.
Worry ifMembership growth falls below 46% year-over-year by Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in Clover Care Services can show better member results and cost control.
Watch forEnrollment in Clover Care Services grew by more than 90% compared to last year.
Also watch forEnrollment in Clover Care Services grew by less than 90% compared to last year.
Why it matters: More people using Clover Assistant can lower medical costs. It can also boost profits.
Supportive ifClover Assistant use was over 40% among members.
Worry ifClover Assistant use was below 40% among members.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is crucial for achieving the 49% increase target for 2026.
Supportive ifQ2 total revenues increase year over year by more than 15%.
Worry ifTotal revenues grow less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: The lawsuit results could change Clover's Star Ratings and future income.
Worry ifCourt ruling favors Clover, reinstating a higher Star Rating.
Less concerning ifA court ruling keeps the lower Star Rating, affecting Clover's payments.
Why it matters: Clover's GAAP Net Income guidance shows it can make money. This is important for investors.
Supportive ifGAAP Net Income for 2026 is confirmed between $20 million and $35 million.
Worry ifGAAP Net Income falls below the guided range of $20 million to $35 million.
Why it matters: Membership growth is key to Clover's revenue and profitability. A slowdown could signal trouble.
Worry ifQ3 Medicare Advantage membership grew less than 46% from last year.
Less concerning ifQ3 Medicare Advantage membership growth is at or above 46% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Total revenue growth is crucial for sustaining profitability. Falling short could raise concerns.
Worry ifTotal revenues in Q3 below $2.92 billion.
Less concerning ifTotal revenues in Q3 meet or exceed $2.92 billion.
Why it matters: Recent changes in the CEO and CFO could affect plans and actions. Stability is key for investor trust.
Worry ifClover appoints a new CEO and CFO, providing a clear leadership direction.
Less concerning ifIf more leaders leave or if leadership is unclear, it may worry investors.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is important for the company to make more money.
Supportive ifTotal revenue reported between $2.81B and $2.92B for 2026.
Worry ifTotal revenue growth falls below 49% year-over-year by Q3 2026.