Clearwater Paper Corp. (CLW)
NYSEMaterialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$20.92+1.06%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CLW
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $21 CLW trades at 0.2× p/s, below its 1.5× p/s peer median. Our $67 fair value sits well above the price. We hold it with low confidence: our number sits well above the analyst range and its earnings are too depressed to value on P/E (we anchor on sales instead). Analysts target $17–$21. Note: our $67 fair value sits above the entire analyst range ($17–$21). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 69% below a flat-multiple fair value, while analysts forecast about 2% growth — below our forecast. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $20.00 | — | — | Analyst | medium |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $56.20 | 12.2 | 5.95 | TTM | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $91.09 | 26.0 | 3.51 | TTM | medium |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $140.65 | 1.5 | 94.29 | TTM | medium |
| Peer P/FCF |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$17.00 – $21.00 (median $20.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-07-29
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 3Y |
| $138.54 |
| 26.0 |
| 5.34 |
| Hist. CAGR(prov.) |
| medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $136.76 | 1.5 | 91.68 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $183.21 | 26.0 | 7.06 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $129.31 | 1.5 | 86.69 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |