Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Clearwater Paper Corp. (CLW)
NYSEMaterialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$13.89-1.14%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CLW yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve $50M fixed cost reduction | A primary condition in Clearwater Paper Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $50 million fixed cost reduction. | Intact | fixed cost reduction falls below $50 million in FY25 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical recovery case, tied to improving mill operations and conditions in its SBS industry. The multi-year view is mixed and still under watch, with medium evidence confidence and elevated risk.
CLW is described as cheap versus peers, but the valuation model has low confidence and the expectations gap is negative. The evidence does not show that the market has fully priced in a recovery; losses and weak performance remain central to the case.
Near term, consecutive earnings misses, a recent CFO transition, and a 46% estimated miss probability make execution and the next results important risks. There is some operational progress: third-quarter operating income returned to a small profit from a loss in the prior quarter, and year-to-date sales volume increased, but nine-month adjusted EBITDA remained far below the year-earlier level.
The multi-year thesis hinges on sustained cost control, fewer mill disruptions, and progress toward stronger margins and cash flow. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support the industry backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those peers could weaken it.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CLW’s recovery case has some signs of execution and a supportive sector backdrop, but earnings quality, recent performance, and operating risk leave the thesis fragile. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company plans to recover profit margins to normal levels. |
| Broken |
| operating income remains below zero over next 4 quarters |
Operating income: $2.5M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: operating income improves from -$10.4M in 2026-Q1. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 26, 20262,500,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue target $1.45B-$1.55B | A primary condition in Clearwater Paper Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is revenue between $1.45B and $1.55B. | Intact | revenue falls below $1.45 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $384.9M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: revenue between $1.45B and $1.55B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 26, 2026384,900,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.38 → $-1.24 · observed estimates
$1.53B → $1.56B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.38 | $1,526,868,570 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.38 | $1,526,868,570 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.38 | $1,526,868,570 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.38 | $1,526,868,570 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.38 | $1,526,868,570 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.38 | $1,526,868,570 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.78 | $1,552,680,643 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.78 | $1,552,680,643 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.78 | $1,552,680,643 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.88 | $1,552,680,640 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.78 | $1,552,680,643 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.78 | $1,552,680,643 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.78 | $1,552,680,643 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.88 | $1,552,680,640 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.78 | $1,552,680,643 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.88 | $1,552,680,640 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.88 | $1,552,680,640 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.78 | $1,552,680,643 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.88 | $1,552,680,640 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.88 | $1,552,680,640 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.88 | $1,552,680,640 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.78 | $1,552,680,643 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.78 | $1,552,680,643 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.78 | $1,552,680,643 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.78 | $1,552,680,643 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.78 | $1,552,680,643 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.78 | $1,552,680,643 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.78 | $1,552,680,643 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.78 | $1,552,680,643 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.78 | $1,552,680,643 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.78 | $1,552,680,643 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.78 | $1,552,680,643 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.78 | $1,552,680,643 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.78 | $1,552,680,643 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.78 | $1,552,680,643 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.78 | $1,552,680,643 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.78 | $1,552,680,643 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.78 | $1,552,680,643 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.78 | $1,552,680,643 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.78 | $1,552,680,643 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.78 | $1,552,680,643 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.78 | $1,552,680,643 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.78 | $1,552,680,643 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.78 | $1,552,680,643 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.78 | $1,552,680,643 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.78 | $1,552,680,643 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.78 | $1,552,680,643 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.78 | $1,552,680,643 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.78 | $1,552,680,643 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.78 | $1,552,680,643 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.56 | $1,555,281,424 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.56 | $1,555,281,424 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.56 | $1,555,281,424 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.56 | $1,555,281,424 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.56 | $1,555,281,424 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.56 | $1,555,281,424 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.56 | $1,555,281,424 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.56 | $1,555,281,424 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.56 | $1,555,281,424 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.56 | $1,555,281,424 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.56 | $1,555,281,424 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.56 | $1,555,281,424 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.56 | $1,555,281,424 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.56 | $1,555,281,424 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.56 | $1,555,281,424 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.56 | $1,555,281,424 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.56 | $1,555,281,424 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.56 | $1,555,281,424 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.56 | $1,555,281,424 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.56 | $1,555,281,424 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.56 | $1,555,281,424 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.56 | $1,555,281,424 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.56 | $1,555,281,424 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.56 | $1,555,281,424 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.56 | $1,555,281,424 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.56 | $1,555,281,424 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.56 | $1,555,281,424 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.56 | $1,555,281,424 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.56 | $1,555,281,424 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.56 | $1,555,281,424 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.56 | $1,555,281,424 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.56 | $1,555,281,424 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.56 | $1,555,281,424 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.83 | $1,555,281,424 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.83 | $1,555,281,424 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.83 | $1,555,281,424 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.78 | $1,560,781,424 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.78 | $1,560,781,424 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.78 | $1,560,781,424 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.78 | $1,560,781,424 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.78 | $1,560,781,424 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.78 | $1,560,781,424 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.78 | $1,560,781,424 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.78 | $1,560,781,424 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.78 | $1,560,781,424 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.78 | $1,560,781,424 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.24 | $1,557,030,679 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.24 | $1,557,030,679 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.24 | $1,557,030,679 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.24 | $1,557,030,679 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.24 | $1,557,030,679 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.24 | $1,557,030,679 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.24 | $1,557,030,679 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.24 | $1,557,030,679 | 1 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.