Clearwater Paper Corp. (CLW)
NYSEMaterialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$14.05+4.85%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
Research Workspace
Put CLW beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Materials: fringe margins under pressure (0q confirmed)
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Recover towards cross-cycle margin levels: Comparison needs review.
View ThesisRevenue is contracting — down about 3% over the past year.
View GrowthManagement screens weak on capital allocation, earnings delivery, market reaction to earnings.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 44% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskClearwater Paper's recovery depends on fixing its Augusta mill. The stock trades at 0.2 times sales. Peers trade at 1.3 times sales. The price reflects less growth than we forecast. Our model puts the next-quarter miss near 55%. The thesis comparison is not yet verified. Peer multiples imply a price about 76% above where it trades. The thesis is on watch. This read is provisional.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-11-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Trailing returns as of 2026-11-04. CLW is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 4 analysts currently covering CLW (as of Nov 2026).
Based on 3 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for CLW in the last 4 months.
Current $14.05
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $14.05.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLW Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-11-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Materials (broad) — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put CLW next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Threatens: Reduce costs and improve operational execution
Low Q4 EBITDA outlook and planned Augusta outage pressure operating performance and cost execution.
Threatens: Industry recovery and margin improvement
Reported Q3 earnings miss and share decline signal pressure on recovery and margin improvement.
Advances: Industry recovery and margin improvement
Pricing and supply tightening support industry recovery.
Advances: Cost reduction and operational efficiency
Positive EBITDA outlook supports cost reduction efforts.
Threatens: Achieve $50M fixed cost reduction in 2025
Pricing headwind impacts cost reduction efforts.
Advances: Achieve $50M fixed cost reduction in 2025
Revenue target supports cost reduction strategy.
Sale of tissue business strengthens focus on core.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.