Clearwater Paper Corp. (CLW)
NYSEMaterialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$20.92+1.06%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CLW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -69.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 70.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers
CLW — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-28
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 28, 2026, Clearwater Paper Corporation (the “Company”) announced its results of operations and financial condition for the second quarter ending June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release containing this announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. In addition, a copy of the Company’s Second Quarter Supplemental Information is furnished as Exhibit 99.2 hereto. In addition to disclosing financial results calculated in accordance with…
Why it matters: Changes in inflation can impact Clearwater's pricing power and costs.
Watch forCPI and PPI reports show inflation rates below 3% on August 12 and 13, 2026.
Also watch forCPI and PPI reports show inflation rates above 5% on August 12 and 13, 2026.
Why it matters: A bigger drop in selling prices means ongoing pricing problems. This would hurt profit margins.
Worry ifAverage net selling price declines more than 9% year over year in Q3.
Less concerning ifAverage net selling price declines less than or stabilizes year over year.
Why it matters: Higher SBS prices could help margins and overall financial results.
Supportive ifSBS pricing rises above $1,100 per ton in industry reports.
Worry ifSBS pricing remains below $1,000 per ton.
Why it matters: Growth in the materials sector could help Clearwater Paper recover.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth is now positive, showing a recovery phase.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is still negative, showing a continued decline.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$195 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $408 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,483 loss on $10,000 · 44.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Recovery in margins is crucial for long-term growth. Continued decline could signal deeper issues.
Supportive ifOperating income improves to at least $2M in Q3 2026.
Worry ifOperating income is still negative. It is below -$5M in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A rise in operating income is key for better margins. Ongoing losses may show bigger issues.
Supportive ifOperating income for Q2 2026 is positive. This shows recovery from -$10.4M in Q1 2026.
Worry ifOperating income stays negative for Q2 2026. This shows ongoing struggles.
Why it matters: Updates on cost cuts can affect future profits and how well the company runs.
Watch forManagement says they have cut nearly $50 million in fixed costs.
Also watch forManagement says there are delays or problems in reducing fixed costs.
Why it matters: Clearwater Paper is growing its sales. This shows it is keeping its market share.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 sales volumes increase year over year by more than 5%.
Worry ifQ3 2026 sales volumes growth falls below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: More cost savings would help the company’s finances and efficiency.
Supportive ifManagement announces more cost cuts beyond the expected $8 to $12 million.
Worry ifNo new cost cuts are announced for the Cypress Bend facility.
Why it matters: Better SBS pricing shows a healthier market. It may lead to better profits.
Watch forSBS pricing is rising above current levels. This shows recovery.
Also watch forSBS pricing continues to decline or remains stagnant.