Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
COLUMBUS MCKINNON CORPORATION (CMCO)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-05
$16.53-11.08%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.64 → 2.66 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CMCO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA near $400 million in fiscal 2027 | The company targets adjusted EBITDA near $400 million next year. | Under Pressure | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $390 million in fiscal 2027 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk industrial integration and recovery story, not a steady compounder. The thesis is in a watch state, and the recent signal shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.
The valuation evidence points to CMCO being cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is strongly negative. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility, but the evidence snapshot does not explain the market’s specific assumptions.
In the near term, results remain weak relative to the industry cohort, and recent financial performance is classified as weak even though the latest quarter reported legacy sales growth and a 21.0% adjusted EBITDA margin. Debt repayment and synergies are management priorities, but leverage remains 4.9x and delivery against the annual synergy goal is not quantified; erratic earnings surprises add risk.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on management sustaining its raised guidance, continuing debt reduction, and showing clearer progress on synergies and organic growth. Industrial bellwethers’ results could also affect the sector backdrop, while a guidance reversal would damage management credibility.
For the 1 to 3 year view, CMCO has signs of operating progress but still faces meaningful execution, leverage, and sector risks. The evidence supports close attention to whether growth and debt reduction continue. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in COLUMBUS MCKINNON CORPORATION's published investment case. The stated target is $70M. |
| Improving |
| Cost synergies fall short of $70 million by Q4 2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “With our initial integration priorities firmly underway, we are sharpening our focus on the longer-term initiatives that will unlock the potential of the combined business," continued Wilson.” “"Our guidance also reflects additional confidence in cost synergy realization and progress towards achieving our leverage reduction targets."” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stable management after CFO transition | A supporting condition in COLUMBUS MCKINNON CORPORATION's published investment case. The stated target is No further disruptive executive departures in next 4 quarters. | Intact | Additional key executive departures occur within next 4 quarters | 0 executive departures vs 0 allowed News and filings show no disruptive executive departures; recent events focus on earnings beats and credit amendments. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches about $2.08 billion in fiscal 2027 | Columbus McKinnon aims to grow revenue to about $2.08 billion in 2027. | Intact | Revenue falls below $2.05 billion in fiscal 2027 | Revenue: $539.285M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$2.08B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 3, 2026539,285,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.51 → $2.66 · observed estimates
$2.16B → $2.19B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.51 | $2,164,385,720 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.75 | $2,088,728,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.51 | $2,164,385,720 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.51 | $2,164,385,720 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.51 | $2,164,385,720 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.51 | $2,164,294,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.51 | $2,164,294,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.60 | $2,176,044,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.60 | $2,176,044,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.61 | $2,177,729,010 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.61 | $2,177,729,010 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.61 | $2,177,729,010 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.60 | $2,177,633,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.61 | $2,177,729,010 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.60 | $2,177,633,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.62 | $2,180,154,010 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.60 | $2,177,633,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.60 | $2,177,633,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.60 | $2,177,633,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.64 | $2,185,379,010 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.60 | $2,177,633,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.60 | $2,177,633,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.60 | $2,177,633,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.60 | $2,177,633,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.60 | $2,177,633,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.60 | $2,177,633,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.60 | $2,177,633,750 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.64 | $2,185,283,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.66 | $2,191,154,975 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-05 | $2.66 | $2,191,154,975 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.