COLUMBUS MCKINNON CORPORATION (CMCO)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$18.84+3.23%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CMCO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -57.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 27.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 84.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 63 industry peers
CMCO — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-20
OTHER EVENTS. The Company announced that its Board of Directors declared and approved on July 20, 2026 a dividend of $0.07 per common share. The dividend will be payable on or about August 17, 2026, to shareholders of record at the close of business on August 7, 2026. A copy of the press release issued in connection with such action is attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is strong. It also cares about its shareholders.
Supportive ifThe dividend is paid on time, showing the company is returning capital.
Worry ifIf the dividend is canceled or delayed, it may mean financial trouble.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if revenue growth aligns with management's guidance for fiscal 2027.
Watch forRevenue was over $2.05 billion. This matches what management said.
Also watch forRevenue was under $2.05 billion. This shows problems in meeting goals.
Why it matters: The new CFO's leadership may change financial plans and actions. It could affect investor trust.
Watch forGood news on financial results or strategy from the new CFO.
Also watch forBad news or problems in financial results linked to the CFO change.
Why it matters: Better adjusted EBITDA shows financial health. It also shows how well the company runs.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q4 improved. It reached at least -$100 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is still below -$150 million. This shows ongoing financial problems.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$241 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $561 loss on $10,000 · 5.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,750 loss on $10,000 · 47.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This would show improvement toward the FY27 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $390M to $410M.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q1 FY27 reported at $100 million or more.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q1 FY27 was below $80 million.
Why it matters: The new CFO's plan could signal a shift in strategy to improve financial performance.
Watch forThe new CFO has a clear plan. It includes ways to save money.
Also watch forThe new CFO provides no clear strategic direction or plan for improvement.
Why it matters: Stable cash flow is crucial for maintaining the dividend. It shows financial health and commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifFree cash flow exceeds $20 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifFree cash flow is below $10 million, raising worries about keeping dividends.
Why it matters: A new CFO can change financial priorities and execution. This could affect cost management and growth strategies.
Watch forThe new CFO announces a clear plan that aligns with management's growth and cost synergy goals.
Also watch forThe new CFO says they will change current financial plans, which causes worry.
Why it matters: Confirming EBITDA guidance shows strong performance. It can improve market feelings.
Supportive ifManagement confirms adjusted EBITDA guidance of $390M to $410M in the next call.
Worry ifManagement cuts adjusted EBITDA guidance to less than $390M in the next call.
Why it matters: Achieving these synergies shows good integration of Kito Crosby. It will also improve margins.
Supportive ifManagement reports at least $14 million in cost synergies realized by the end of FY27.
Worry ifCost synergies are reported below $14 million. This shows there are challenges with integration.
Why it matters: Hitting this target would show a big gain in making money. This comes after recent losses.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA is reported to be between $390 million and $410 million for FY27.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is reported to be below $350 million for FY27.
Why it matters: Reducing debt shows the company is in good financial shape. It is managing debt well.
Supportive ifManagement reports a net leverage ratio below 4x by the end of FY28.
Worry ifNet leverage ratio stays above 4x, showing slow progress on reducing debt.
Why it matters: This would indicate strong growth toward the FY27 revenue guidance of $2.05B to $2.12B.
Supportive ifQ1 FY27 revenue reported at $500 million or more.
Worry ifQ1 FY27 revenue reported below $450 million.
Why it matters: Achieving these synergies is key to improving margins and cash flow. It shows how well the company is integrating the acquisition.
Supportive ifManagement reports achieving at least 20% of the $70 million target in FY27.
Worry ifNo major updates on cost savings or delays in the integration process.
Why it matters: The revenue guidance shows faith in growth after a strong Q1. It shows the company can keep growing.
Supportive ifManagement confirms revenue guidance of $2.09 billion to $2.15 billion for FY27.
Worry ifManagement cuts the revenue guidance to below $2.09 billion.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial health and a promise to give value to shareholders. It shows the company's cash flow is good.
Supportive ifThe company pays the declared dividend of $0.07 per share on time.
Worry ifThe company suspends or delays the dividend payment.