Comcast (CMCSA)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$26.49-0.60%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CMCSA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -22.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -3.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers
CMCSA — director transition
Dated 2026-02-27
Audit Committee member — Gordon Smith: Appointment of Gordon Smith to the Audit Committee.
Why it matters: High free cash flow helps Comcast spend money wisely and pay shareholders.
Supportive ifFree cash flow exceeds $4 billion in Q3.
Worry ifFree cash flow drops below $4 billion in Q3.
Why it matters: The communication services sector is falling. Positive revenue growth could mean a change for Comcast.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth is now positive. It was negative for several quarters.
Worry ifSector revenue growth stays negative. This shows continuing problems.
Why it matters: A stronger balance sheet is key for future investments and stability.
Supportive ifNet income turns positive again after a loss of $2.1 billion in Q4 2025.
Worry ifNet income stays negative or gets worse in the next quarters.
Why it matters: If Peacock remains profitable, it confirms the success of Comcast's content strategy. This could lead to higher valuations.
Supportive ifPeacock reports profits again in Q3. EBITDA is above $189 million.
Worry ifPeacock fails to achieve profitability or reports a loss in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$116 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $286 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,172 loss on $10,000 · 31.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better EBITDA would show recovery in Theme Parks. This segment has had issues.
Supportive ifQ3 Theme Parks EBITDA improves or stays above $609 million.
Worry ifQ3 Theme Parks EBITDA declines further from $609 million.
Why it matters: The spin-off will create two focused companies. This may help them grow faster. Investors will watch how this affects each company's plans and results.
Supportive ifThe spin-off is done. Both companies will share their first earnings as separate businesses.
Worry ifThe spin-off is delayed or canceled. Both companies may show weak results after the split.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is crucial for funding growth and returning capital to shareholders.
Supportive ifFree cash flow increases from $3.9 billion in Q1 2026 to above $4.5 billion in Q2 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow continues to decline or stays below $3.9 billion.
Why it matters: If broadband losses increase, it signals trouble in Comcast's core business. This could impact overall revenue and growth.
Worry ifQ3 broadband customer net losses worse than 200,000.
Less concerning ifQ3 broadband customer net losses improve to less than 200,000.
Why it matters: If Peacock gets over 50 million subscribers, it shows strong demand for streaming. This can increase overall revenue.
Supportive ifPeacock subscriber count exceeds 50 million.
Worry ifPeacock has less than 48 million subscribers.
Why it matters: A drop in EBITDA margin means higher costs or lower profits. This can hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifIn Q3, the adjusted EBITDA margin is below 40%. This shows a decline.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA margin is still above 40%.
Why it matters: The separation could unlock value for both companies, allowing them to focus on their core strengths.
Supportive ifThe separation will be done by mid-2027. This will happen after getting approvals.
Worry ifSeparation delayed beyond mid-2027 or not completed.