CME Group (CME)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-07-07
$240.75+2.55%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $240.75. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $241 CME trades at 20× p/e, in line with its 17× p/e peer median, and our $260 fair value agrees. We hold it with medium confidence: quality doesn't explain valuation multiples in this sub-industry, so the peer comparison is a weak guide. Analysts target $260–$362. Note: our $260 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($260–$362). Not investment advice.
$260.00 – $362.00 (median $323.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-07-06
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $323.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $472.91 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $478.11 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $139.31 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $44.35 | 16.5 | 2.68 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer P/B | 12M | $153.76 | 2.1 | 73.29 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $162.16 | 13.6 | 11.92 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $194.77 | 16.5 | 11.77 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $62.79 | 3.4 | 18.61 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $147.09 | 12.5 | 11.77 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $102.78 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $255.55 | 21.7 | 11.77 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $196.95 | 16.5 | 11.90 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $53.59 | 16.5 | 3.24 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/B | 3Y | $149.46 | 2.1 | 71.24 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $228.10 | 13.6 | 16.77 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $233.71 | 16.5 | 14.12 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $74.56 | 3.4 | 22.10 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $176.49 | 12.5 | 14.12 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $306.64 | 21.7 | 14.12 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $60.80 | 16.5 | 3.67 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/B | 5Y | $146.66 | 2.1 | 69.90 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $286.36 | 13.6 | 21.05 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $261.43 | 16.5 | 15.80 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $83.40 | 3.4 | 24.72 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $197.42 | 12.5 | 15.80 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $343.01 | 21.7 | 15.80 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.