CME Group (CME)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$281.29-0.27%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CME
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $281 the market pays 24× p/e — above the 12× p/e peer median but in line with its own 22× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $240 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts target $260–$330. Note: our $240 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($260–$330). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $296 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $321.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $403.86 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $427.53 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $139.60 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$260.00 – $330.00 (median $321.50) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-08-19
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $78.77 |
| 12.4 |
| 6.35 |
| Mgmt |
| high |
| Peer P/B | 12M | $98.41 | 1.3 | 73.41 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $128.99 | 11.1 | 11.66 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $129.49 | 11.2 | 11.61 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $53.95 | 2.9 | 18.75 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $145.33 | 13.4 | 10.87 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $101.93 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $237.80 | 21.9 | 10.87 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $148.66 | 12.4 | 11.98 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $96.63 | 12.4 | 7.79 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/B | 3Y | $93.82 | 1.3 | 69.98 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $174.84 | 11.1 | 15.80 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $161.16 | 11.2 | 14.45 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $65.74 | 2.9 | 22.85 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $193.30 | 13.4 | 14.45 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $316.29 | 21.9 | 14.45 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $110.74 | 12.4 | 8.93 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/B | 5Y | $90.88 | 1.3 | 67.79 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $214.13 | 11.1 | 19.36 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $183.30 | 11.2 | 16.44 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $74.77 | 2.9 | 25.98 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $219.85 | 13.4 | 16.44 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $359.73 | 21.9 | 16.44 | Analyst | high |