Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
CME Group (CME)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$307.24-0.33%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
12.93 → 13.24 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CME yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Grow average daily trading volume to at least 36 million contracts in Q1 2026 | Average daily trading volume grew 22% to 36.2 million contracts, supporting earnings growth. | Intact | average daily volume falls below 30 million contracts in Q1 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CME is a durable, activity-driven financial business, with a multi-year view tied to trading volume, market data, and access to its markets. The thesis is intact, but earnings quality, management, and recent financial performance are rated neutral, so the evidence does not point to a clear step-change in execution.
CME is valued at a 2.1-times premium versus peers, and the valuation evidence is classified as expensive and stretched. The expectations gap is 0.13, but model confidence is low, so the precise level of expectations is uncertain. Fragility is rated low because the premium is not paired with broad execution weakness and market turbulence.
Near-term results have shown progress: revenue rose from $1.5376 billion in 2025-Q3 to $1.7373 billion in 2026-Q3, while average daily volume reached 29.4 million contracts. Market data revenue and reported client margin efficiencies also increased, supporting management’s stated priorities. Near-term risk is rated moderate; the estimated miss probability is 19%, with recent history of misses and a meaningful risk if guidance is cut.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on CME sustaining trading activity, product expansion, and financial performance without cutting guidance. A move by the Fed to cut rates could weigh on CME and other Financials names, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support sector momentum. The recent CEO transition is noted, but the evidence does not detail its expected effects.
For the 1-to-3-year view, improving activity and delivery on management priorities keep the thesis intact, but the expensive valuation leaves limited room for weaker execution. The main test is whether growth continues without guidance cuts or a less supportive sector backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in CME Group's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.3 billion. |
| Intact |
| operating income falls below $1.1 billion in Q1 2026 |
Operating income: $1.141B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.3 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 23, 20261,141,400,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Expand product offerings and market access with new futures launches | New product launches and market expansion improve long-term growth potential. | Improving | significant delays or regulatory blocks on new product launches through 2026 | Qualitative: 4 new product launches vs target of successful adoption by FY26 CME launched Securities Clearing and Tungsten futures; CFTC blocked perpetuals challenge; Druckenmiller supports crypto expansion. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve record revenue growth near $6.5B in FY26 | A primary condition in CME Group's published investment case. The stated target is >= $6.5 billion. | Under Pressure | annual revenue falls below $6.0 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $1.737B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $6.5 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 23, 20261,737,300,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$12.83 → $13.24 · observed estimates
$7.30B → $7.49B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $12.83 | $7,302,904,870 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-07-25 | $12.94 | $7,352,425,780 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-07-26 | $12.94 | $7,352,425,780 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-07-27 | $12.94 | $7,352,425,780 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-07-28 | $12.94 | $7,352,425,780 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-07-29 | $12.92 | $7,383,076,871 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $12.94 | $7,360,954,610 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-07-31 | $12.92 | $7,383,076,871 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $12.92 | $7,383,076,871 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $12.92 | $7,383,076,871 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $12.92 | $7,383,076,871 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $12.94 | $7,360,954,610 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-08-05 | $12.93 | $7,360,916,150 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-08-06 | $12.92 | $7,383,076,871 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-07 | $12.92 | $7,383,076,871 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $12.92 | $7,383,076,871 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $12.92 | $7,383,076,871 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $12.92 | $7,383,076,871 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-11 | $12.92 | $7,383,076,871 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $12.92 | $7,383,076,871 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $12.92 | $7,383,076,871 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $12.92 | $7,383,076,871 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-15 | $12.92 | $7,383,076,871 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-16 | $12.92 | $7,383,076,871 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $12.92 | $7,383,076,871 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $12.92 | $7,383,076,871 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $12.92 | $7,383,076,871 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $12.93 | $7,385,921,702 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-21 | $12.93 | $7,385,921,702 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-22 | $12.93 | $7,385,921,702 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-23 | $12.93 | $7,385,921,702 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-24 | $12.93 | $7,385,921,702 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-25 | $12.93 | $7,385,921,702 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $12.93 | $7,385,921,702 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $12.93 | $7,385,921,702 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $12.93 | $7,385,921,702 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $12.93 | $7,385,921,702 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $12.93 | $7,385,921,702 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $12.93 | $7,385,921,702 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $12.93 | $7,385,921,702 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $12.93 | $7,385,921,702 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-03 | $12.91 | $7,374,505,240 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-04 | $12.91 | $7,374,541,357 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $12.91 | $7,374,541,357 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $12.91 | $7,374,541,357 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | $12.91 | $7,374,541,357 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $12.91 | $7,374,541,357 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $12.91 | $7,374,541,357 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $12.91 | $7,374,541,357 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $12.92 | $7,376,449,897 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $12.92 | $7,376,449,897 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $12.92 | $7,376,449,897 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $12.92 | $7,376,449,897 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $12.92 | $7,376,449,897 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $12.92 | $7,376,449,897 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $12.92 | $7,376,449,897 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $12.92 | $7,376,449,897 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $12.92 | $7,376,449,897 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $12.92 | $7,376,449,897 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $12.92 | $7,376,449,897 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $12.92 | $7,376,449,897 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $12.92 | $7,376,449,897 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $12.92 | $7,376,449,897 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $12.92 | $7,376,449,897 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-26 | $12.92 | $7,376,449,897 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-27 | $12.92 | $7,376,449,897 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-28 | $12.92 | $7,376,449,897 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-29 | $12.92 | $7,376,449,897 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-30 | $12.92 | $7,376,449,897 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-01 | $12.92 | $7,376,449,897 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-02 | $12.92 | $7,376,449,897 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-03 | $12.93 | $7,370,433,621 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-04 | $12.93 | $7,370,455,543 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-05 | $12.93 | $7,370,455,543 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-06 | $12.95 | $7,382,952,072 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-07 | $12.95 | $7,382,952,072 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-08 | $12.96 | $7,389,166,358 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-09 | $12.96 | $7,389,166,358 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-10 | $12.96 | $7,389,166,358 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-11 | $12.99 | $7,396,048,613 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-12 | $12.99 | $7,396,048,613 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-13 | $13.00 | $7,398,592,042 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-14 | $13.00 | $7,398,592,042 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-15 | $13.00 | $7,399,666,542 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $13.01 | $7,402,679,591 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $13.01 | $7,402,679,591 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $13.01 | $7,402,679,591 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-19 | $13.01 | $7,402,679,591 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-20 | $13.01 | $7,402,822,448 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-21 | $13.03 | $7,409,608,162 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-22 | $13.13 | $7,442,962,655 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-23 | $13.19 | $7,476,482,922 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-24 | $13.20 | $7,485,240,208 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-25 | $13.20 | $7,485,240,208 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-26 | $13.20 | $7,485,240,208 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-27 | $13.20 | $7,485,240,208 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-28 | $13.20 | $7,485,240,208 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $13.22 | $7,490,154,775 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $13.22 | $7,490,154,775 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $13.24 | $7,490,154,775 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $13.24 | $7,490,154,775 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $13.24 | $7,490,154,775 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $13.24 | $7,490,154,775 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-11-04 | $13.24 | $7,490,154,775 | 10 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 9 recorded
4 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.