CME Group (CME)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$281.29-0.27%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CME
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 17.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers
CME — CEO transition
Dated 2026-06-17
Chief Executive Officer — Terrence A. Duffy: The current CEO, Terrence A. Duffy, is transitioning to the role of Executive Chairman, and Lynne C. Fitzpatrick will succeed him as Chief Executive Officer.
Why it matters: The CEO change may affect company plans and how the market sees it.
Watch forLynne Fitzpatrick uses new strategies after the change.
Also watch forThe transition may cause instability or bad reactions in the market.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can change priorities. This can impact how the company performs.
Watch forNew CEO Lynne C. Fitzpatrick announced positive plans. These initiatives look promising.
Also watch forA negative market reaction can happen after the transition. This may show poor strategy.
Why it matters: New products can drive trading volume and attract new clients, supporting revenue growth.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least two new products in Q3.
Worry ifNo new product announcements in Q3.
Why it matters: Growth in market data revenue shows strong demand for CME's services.
Supportive ifMarket data revenue growth of at least 15% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifMarket data revenue growth below 10% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Updates on capital use will show how CME grows and pays back shareholders.
Watch forCME announces more share buybacks or new capital plans.
Also watch forCME halts share repurchase program or cuts dividend payments.
Why it matters: FOMC decisions can have a big impact on market conditions and trading volumes.
Watch forFOMC raises interest rates or signals a hawkish stance.
Also watch forFOMC cuts rates or signals a dovish stance.
Why it matters: Changes to the dividend could change how investors feel and how they get money back.
Watch forCME Group will have a variable dividend that matches the regular dividend in March 2026.
Also watch forCME Group changes or delays the dividend structure. This creates uncertainty for investors.
Why it matters: A drop in ADV would signal weakening trading activity and could impact revenue.
Worry ifQ3 ADV was below 29 million contracts. This shows a big drop.
Less concerning ifQ3 ADV stayed above 29 million contracts. This means trading activity is stable or up.
Why it matters: The new CEO's plans could shape CME's future direction and impact investor confidence.
Watch forThere will be an announcement of new plans that match growth goals.
Also watch forNo announcement or unclear plans for future strategies.
Why it matters: Earnings above this level would reinforce the trend of record financial performance.
Supportive ifQ3 earnings per share reported above $2.88.
Worry ifQ3 earnings per share reported below $2.88.
Why it matters: Continued ADV growth supports revenue and earnings. A slowdown could signal market weakness.
Supportive ifADV increases above 30 million contracts for Q2 2026.
Worry ifADV falls below 28 million contracts for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: New products can drive growth and attract more trading volume.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least two new products or services launched.
Worry ifNo new product announcements or delays in planned launches.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$120 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $269 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,142 loss on $10,000 · 31.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.