CME Group (CME)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$307.24-0.33%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CME
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 20.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CME — CEO transition
Dated 2026-06-17
Chief Executive Officer — Terrence A. Duffy: The current CEO, Terrence A. Duffy, is transitioning to the role of Executive Chairman, and Lynne C. Fitzpatrick will succeed him as Chief Executive Officer.
Why it matters: Market data revenue rose 20% in Q3 to a record. Further growth would show this business is still expanding.
Supportive ifQ4 market data revenue is above $243 million.
Worry ifQ4 market data revenue is below the Q4 2025 level of $202.5 million.
Why it matters: Q3 volume set a third-quarter record. Another year-over-year gain would support the view that client trading activity remains strong.
Supportive ifQ4 average daily volume is above 29.4 million contracts, the Q3 2026 level.
Worry ifQ4 average daily volume falls below the Q4 2025 level.
Why it matters: The event record says Jack Tobin is set to succeed as CEO. A clear timeline would confirm the handoff plan is moving forward.
Supportive ifCME names Jack Tobin as CEO and gives a transition date.
Worry ifCME delays the planned handoff or names a different successor.
Why it matters: CME repurchased $524 million of shares in Q3. A sharp drop would mark a change in its recent capital return.
Worry ifQ4 share repurchases are below $524 million, the Q3 2026 amount.
Less concerning ifQ4 share repurchases are at least $524 million, and regular dividends are also paid.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$96 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $289 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,142 loss on $10,000 · 31.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: CME says its cloud move is progressing. A service disruption or rising overlap costs could weaken that progress.
Worry ifCME reports a trading or clearing service outage tied to the cloud move, or higher costs from running both systems.
Less concerning ifCME reports steady cloud progress. No related service outage or higher overlap costs have occurred.