Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Commerce.com, Inc. (CMRC)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.62+4.93%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.63 → 0.60 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CMRC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve non-GAAP operating income between $34M and $53M in 2026 | A primary condition in Commerce.com, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $34 million. | Broken | Operating income falls below $34 million in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a higher-risk growth and profitability-improvement story, not a proven durable compounder. The multi-year view has weakened this week as recent performance slipped relative to industry peers, despite management remaining on track with its stated priorities.
The valuation evidence points to CMRC as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, meaning expectations appear to sit below the model’s baseline. The snapshot labels pricing as justified and fragility as low, but it does not provide enough detail to say precisely what market assumptions are embedded.
Near term, results show modest year-over-year revenue growth, nearly stable ARR, and improved non-GAAP operating income; management also raised its 2026 operating-income guidance. Cost savings are intended to support profitability from 2027, while AI investment remains a stated priority without clear financial milestones; a guidance cut is a meaningful risk, and recent performance has weakened relative to peers.
The multi-year thesis depends on revenue and ARR growth becoming more consistent and on cost savings translating into sustained profitability. Near term, a guidance cut would weaken the case, while Fed rate cuts or steadier results and guidance from large technology peers could improve the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CMRC presents a mixed, high-risk thesis: profitability is improving, but growth remains modest and recent relative performance has weakened. The evidence is medium confidence, and execution on growth and cost savings remains central. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Commerce.com, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$358.5 million. |
| Broken |
| Annual revenue falls below $347.5 million in 2026 |
Revenue: $84.511M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$358.5 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202684,511,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Implement workforce realignment to optimize costs in 2026 | The company is realigning its workforce to cut costs. | Intact | Failure to execute workforce realignment plan by end of 2026 | Plan committed Sep 2026 vs FY26 target Sep 2026 commitment to workforce realignment plan with $4.2M-$8.8M estimated exit costs. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.47 → $0.60 · observed estimates
$0.37B → $0.34B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.47 | $372,108,060 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.47 | $372,108,060 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.47 | $372,108,060 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.47 | $372,108,060 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.47 | $372,108,060 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.47 | $371,249,093 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.47 | $372,108,060 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.47 | $372,108,060 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.47 | $371,249,093 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.47 | $372,108,060 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.47 | $372,108,060 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.47 | $372,108,060 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.47 | $371,249,093 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.47 | $371,249,093 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.47 | $366,791,623 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.44 | $352,691,910 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.44 | $352,691,910 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.44 | $352,691,910 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.47 | $366,791,623 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.47 | $366,791,623 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.47 | $366,791,623 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.47 | $366,791,623 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.47 | $366,791,623 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.47 | $366,791,623 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.47 | $366,791,623 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.47 | $366,791,623 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.47 | $366,791,623 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.34 | $345,684,337 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.34 | $345,684,337 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.34 | $345,684,337 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.34 | $345,684,337 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.34 | $345,684,337 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.32 | $341,132,869 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.32 | $341,132,869 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.32 | $341,132,869 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.32 | $341,132,869 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.32 | $341,132,869 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.32 | $341,132,869 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.32 | $341,132,869 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.32 | $341,132,869 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.32 | $341,132,869 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.32 | $341,132,869 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.32 | $341,132,869 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.32 | $341,132,869 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.32 | $341,132,869 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.32 | $341,132,869 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.32 | $341,132,869 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.32 | $341,132,869 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.32 | $341,132,869 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.32 | $341,132,869 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.63 | $340,218,676 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.63 | $340,218,676 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.63 | $340,218,676 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.63 | $340,218,676 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.63 | $340,218,676 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.63 | $340,218,676 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.63 | $340,218,676 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.63 | $340,218,676 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.63 | $340,218,676 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.63 | $340,218,676 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.63 | $340,218,676 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.63 | $340,218,676 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.63 | $340,218,676 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.63 | $340,218,676 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.63 | $340,218,676 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.63 | $340,218,676 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.63 | $340,218,676 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.63 | $340,218,676 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.63 | $340,218,676 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.63 | $340,218,676 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.63 | $340,218,676 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.63 | $340,218,676 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.63 | $340,218,676 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.63 | $340,218,676 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.63 | $340,218,676 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.63 | $340,218,676 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.63 | $340,218,676 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.63 | $340,218,676 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.63 | $340,218,676 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.63 | $340,218,676 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.63 | $340,218,676 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.63 | $340,218,676 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.63 | $340,218,676 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.63 | $340,218,676 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.63 | $340,218,676 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.63 | $340,218,676 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.63 | $340,218,676 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.63 | $340,218,676 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.63 | $340,218,676 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.63 | $340,218,676 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.63 | $340,218,676 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.63 | $340,218,676 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.63 | $340,218,676 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.63 | $340,218,743 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.63 | $340,218,743 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.63 | $340,218,743 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.63 | $340,218,743 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.63 | $340,218,743 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.63 | $340,218,743 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.63 | $340,218,743 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.60 | $340,062,491 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.60 | $340,062,491 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.60 | $340,062,491 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.60 | $340,062,491 | 3 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.