Commerce.com, Inc. (CMRC)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.45+4.55%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CMRC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -46.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -1.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 45.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 36 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CMRC — CFO transition
Dated 2026-11-05
CFO — Daniel Lentz: The CFO is stepping down with an immediate internal interim successor appointed, indicating an orderly transition rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: Q2 revenue was nearly flat year over year, and full-year revenue guidance fell. A miss would add to signs of weak growth.
Worry ifOn November 5, Q3 revenue is below $82.5 million, the low end of the company’s guide.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue is at least $82.5 million and within the $82.5 million to $85.5 million guide.
Why it matters: Q2 operating income rose from a year ago, but free cash flow fell sharply. A Q3 miss would weaken the profit trend.
Worry ifQ3 non-GAAP operating income is below $3.3 million, the low end of the company’s guide.
Less concerning ifQ3 non-GAAP operating income is at least $3.3 million and within the $3.3 million to $5.3 million guide.
Why it matters: The board approved a repurchase program, but the company did not say how much it would use. A filing can show whether shares are bought back.
Watch forA company filing reports shares bought under the $50 million program. It gives the number or amount.
Also watch forA company filing reports no share purchases, or the program ends with none reported.
Why it matters: NRR rose for three straight quarters, but it remained below 100%. A further rise would show existing customers spend more.
Supportive ifQ3 NRR is above 95.8%, the Q2 level, and the company reports another quarter of sequential growth.
Worry ifQ3 NRR is 95.8% or lower, ending the recent step-up.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$282 on $10,000 · ±2.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $485 loss on $10,000 · 4.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,959 loss on $10,000 · 39.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The workforce plan aims to cut costs, but it brings near-term charges. The next report can show whether the charge stays in range.
Watch forA company filing or earnings report puts plan costs at $4.2 million to $8.8 million and links the plan to lower costs.
Also watch forA company filing or earnings report puts plan costs above $8.8 million, or reports no expected cost or cash flow gains.