Commerce.com, Inc. (CMRC)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.57+2.39%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CMRC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -27.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -1.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 26.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 120 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CMRC — capital allocation — Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders
Dated 2026-04-14
Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders. On April 13, 2026, Commerce.com, Inc. (the “ Company ”) entered into a Rights Agreement between the Company and Equiniti Trust Company, LLC as Rights Agent (as amended from time to time, the “ Rights Agreement ”) that was previously approved by the Board of Directors of the Company. In connection with the Rights Agreement, a dividend was declared of one preferred stock purchase right (individually, a “ Right ” and collectively, the “ Rights…
Why it matters: Higher non-GAAP operating income means more profit. It also shows good cost control.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP operating income was more than $5.3 million in Q3.
Worry ifNon-GAAP operating income was less than $3.3 million in Q3.
Why it matters: A drop below median growth signals a weakening trend in the sector. This could hurt Commerce.com’s performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median level.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median level.
Why it matters: Advances in AI commerce could boost competition and chances to make money.
Supportive ifNew AI product features or partnerships may be announced.
Worry ifNo major updates on AI product plans in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Steady ARR growth shows strong customer loyalty and business strength.
Supportive ifARR growth reported above 2% YoY in Q3.
Worry ifARR growth reported below 2% YoY in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$290 on $10,000 · ±2.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $839 loss on $10,000 · 8.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,690 loss on $10,000 · 56.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This news will give details on revenue and income growth. It can greatly affect investor feelings.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue and income growth in line with targets.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue and income falling short of targets.
Why it matters: This guidance will show if Commerce can maintain revenue growth despite recent declines.
Watch forQ3 total revenue reported within the range of $82.5 million to $85.5 million.
Also watch forQ3 total revenue was less than $82.5 million.
Why it matters: The rights plan helps protect shareholder value during buyout offers. This affects investor feelings.
Watch forShare price stays the same or goes up after the rights plan starts.
Also watch forShare price drops a lot after the rights plan is announced.
Why it matters: Cutting costs is important for better financial results and reaching goals.
Watch forManagement shared steps taken to realign the workforce. These steps will save money.
Also watch forNo updates or weak actions were reported about job changes.
Why it matters: Sustained growth in EMEA is crucial for overall revenue health. A slowdown could indicate market challenges.
Supportive ifRevenue growth in EMEA reported above 10% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth in EMEA reported below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Changes to this plan could affect investor confidence and stockholder value.
Watch forA strategic decision about the rights plan was announced. It is seen as good.
Also watch forA change to the rights plan was announced. Investors view it negatively.