Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Core Molding Technologies, Inc. (CMT)
AMEXMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$21.05-0.52%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
AMEXMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.00 → 1.86 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CMT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Effective use of share buybacks to support shareholder value | A supporting condition in Core Molding Technologies, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Maintain or increase buyback program execution. | Intact | buyback program is halted or materially reduced | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CMT is a smaller-cap industrial business with a growth and diversification thesis, rather than a clear turnaround. Its long-term thesis is intact, with medium confidence, though recent earnings have been erratic and near-term risk is elevated.
Valuation is described as a durable premium to peers, and it has risen recently. The expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting current expectations may be somewhat ahead of the evidence; the priced-in assessment is tagged as justified, with low fragility.
In the near term, truck softness remains a risk, while management expects a recovery in the second half of 2026. Growth outside truck and powersports and second-quarter gross margin improvement show progress, though full-year margin guidance still depends on product mix and tooling revenue. Capital spending is progressing, including the Mexico expansion, but recent earnings have been erratic.
The next results matter because a guidance cut could prompt estimates to be revised lower. The multi-year thesis also depends on continued growth in diversified markets, margin delivery, and execution of the Mexico investment plans. Materials-sector support may persist if bellwethers continue to report well, but could fade if they miss or guide lower.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CMT’s thesis rests on diversification and margin gains offsetting truck-market uncertainty. The thesis remains intact, but the near-term evidence is mixed and confidence is medium. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company targets a gross margin between 17% and 19% for the full year. |
| Intact |
| gross margin falls below 17% in FY26 |
Gross margin: 14.83% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 17% to 19%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 202614.830945 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Successful CEO transition and strategic execution | A supporting condition in Core Molding Technologies, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Smooth leadership transition with no major operational disruptions. | Improving | significant operational disruption or strategic missteps due to CEO transition | Qualitative: CEO transition announced May 2026; Q3 earnings beat Nov 2026 CEO transition announced May 2026. Q3 2026 earnings beat expectations in November 2026, confirming no operational disruption from leadership change. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain flat to 5% revenue growth | A primary condition in Core Molding Technologies, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is flat to +5% YoY. | Improving | YoY revenue growth falls below 0% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 54.42% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: flat to +5% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 202654.422863 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.00 → $1.86 · observed estimates
$0.30B → $0.30B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.00 | $300,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.00 | $300,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.00 | $300,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.00 | $300,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.00 | $300,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.00 | $300,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.00 | $300,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.00 | $300,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.00 | $300,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.00 | $300,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.00 | $300,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.00 | $300,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.00 | $300,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.00 | $300,750,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.00 | $303,370,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.00 | $300,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.00 | $300,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.00 | $300,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.00 | $300,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.00 | $300,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.00 | $300,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.00 | $300,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.00 | $300,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.00 | $300,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.00 | $300,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.00 | $300,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.00 | $300,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.00 | $300,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.00 | $300,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.00 | $300,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.00 | $300,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.00 | $300,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.00 | $300,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.00 | $300,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.00 | $300,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.00 | $300,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.00 | $300,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.00 | $300,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.00 | $300,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.00 | $300,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.00 | $300,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.00 | $300,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.00 | $300,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.00 | $300,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.00 | $300,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.00 | $300,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.00 | $300,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.00 | $300,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.86 | $304,340,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.