Core Molding Technologies, Inc. (CMT)
AMEXMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$24.12+0.33%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
AMEXMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CMT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 20.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 14.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CMT — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 4, 2026, the Company announced financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release announcing this event is included in this Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1.
Why it matters: Core Molding's revenue growth shows it is handling challenges. This could mean demand is recovering.
Supportive ifCore Molding reports revenue growth of more than 0% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains negative year over year.
Why it matters: The new CEO may shift company strategy. This could affect revenue and margins moving forward.
Watch forThe new CEO announces a strategic plan that aims to boost revenue and margins.
Also watch forThe new CEO continues with the same strategy without changes or improvements.
Why it matters: Completing the Mexico expansion will boost production capacity. This will help support growth.
Supportive ifManagement confirms the expansion is on track for completion by the end of 2026.
Worry ifDelays in the Mexico expansion will push completion past 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how revenue and profit margins are doing.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth and gross margin within target range.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue decline and gross margin below target.
Why it matters: Gross margin above 17% shows good cost management. It also shows a strong product mix.
Supportive ifGross margin is still above 17%. This confirms good operational efficiency.
Worry ifIf gross margin drops below 17%, there may be cost management problems.
Why it matters: This report will provide insights on revenue trends and the impact of the truck cycle recovery.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth over 5% compared to last year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue drop greater than 5% compared to last year.
Why it matters: An increase in truck orders would signal a recovery in the truck market, supporting revenue growth.
Supportive ifTruck orders increase by more than 10% compared to Q1 levels.
Worry ifTruck orders decrease or remain flat compared to Q1 levels.
Why it matters: Management aims for flat to 5% growth for 2026. A recovery would show progress.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue shows year-over-year growth of at least 0%.
Worry ifQ2 revenue is down again compared to last year.
Why it matters: Core Molding is growing outside the truck market. This shows it can make more money.
Supportive ifProduction sales excluding truck grow over 20% year over year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifProduction sales excluding truck grow less than 10% year over year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Winning new business shows good market diversification. It also shows potential for revenue growth.
Supportive ifNew business awards are more than $25 million. This helps with growth and diversification.
Worry ifIf new business wins are under $15 million, there may be challenges in expanding.
Why it matters: New business wins show growth and variety. Over $30 million means strong progress.
Supportive ifNew business wins in H2 2026 are over $30 million. This shows strong market demand.
Worry ifNew business wins in H2 2026 fall below $20 million, suggesting weak demand.
Why it matters: Gross margin is important for making money. A drop below 17% shows problems.
Worry ifGross margin in Q3 2026 stays above 17%. This shows the company is running well.
Less concerning ifGross margin in Q3 2026 drops below 17%. This shows possible problems in operations.
Why it matters: Recovery in the truck market is crucial for revenue growth. Signs of recovery would support positive outlook.
Supportive ifTruck orders rise a lot in Q3 2026. This shows the market is recovering.
Worry ifTruck orders continue to decline in Q3 2026, suggesting ongoing market weakness.
Why it matters: Meeting the spending goal shows a focus on growth. This is important in Mexico.
Supportive ifCapital expenditures hit $25 million in 2026. This supports growth plans.
Worry ifCapital expenditures drop below $20 million in 2026. This shows less focus on growth.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$96 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $417 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,989 loss on $10,000 · 19.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.