Core Molding Technologies, Inc. (CMT)
AMEXMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$21.16+1.83%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
AMEXMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CMT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 1.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 25 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CMT — M&A activity
Dated 2026-09-28
filing. This Amendment is being filed solely to correct the item designation on EDGAR to reference
Why it matters: Q2 gross margin was 20.3%, but a one-time customer credit added to the result. Full-year margin will test whether strong margins last.
Watch forFull-year gross margin lands at or above 17% and no higher than 19%, as management guided.
Also watch forFull-year gross margin falls below 17%, or management cuts its 17% to 19% range.
Why it matters: Management kept its 2026 sales view at flat to about 5% growth. Q3 results can show if new markets offset weak truck sales.
Watch forQ3 year-to-date sales are at least flat year over year, with non-truck production sales still growing.
Also watch forQ3 year-to-date sales fall year over year, and non-truck production sales growth slows or turns negative.
Why it matters: The battery storage award adds business beyond truck and powersports. Production revenue would show the award is turning into sales.
Supportive ifThe company names the battery storage customer or program. It reports production sales from it.
Worry ifThe company says the award was delayed or canceled, or production did not start by its stated launch date.
Why it matters: Tooling sales depend on customer projects, and Q2 tooling revenue fell to $1.8 million. Larger customer approvals are due in Q4.
Watch forQ4 tooling revenue tops Q2's $1.8 million. The company reports more customer approvals.
Also watch forQ4 tooling revenue is $1.8 million or less, or expected customer approvals are late.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$96 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $438 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,670 loss on $10,000 · 26.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.