Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Claros Mortgage Trust, Inc. (CMTG)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-05
$1.71-7.57%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CMTG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain refinancing and manage credit agreements | The company refinanced debt to improve its capital structure. | Intact | Failure to refinance or worsening credit terms | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The weighted average diluted shares outstanding used for Distributable Earnings (Loss) and Distributable Earnings (Loss) per share prior to realized gains and losses have been adjusted from weighted average diluted shares under GAAP to include weighted average unvested RSUs and warrants outstanding, if the exercise price of the warrants exceeds the average share price of our common stock during such period.” “Net Debt-to-Equity Ratio and Total Leverage Ratio: Net Debt-to-Equity Ratio and Total Leverage Ratio are non-GAAP measures that we use to evaluate our financial leverage, which in the case of our Total Leverage Ratio, makes certain adjustments that we believe provide a more conservative measure of our financial condition.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making real estate investment with a turnaround-like thesis, not a proven earnings compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, with management making progress on loan resolutions and deleveraging, but near-term execution remains fragile.
CMTG is assessed as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is nearly neutral and the priced-in assessment is justified. The evidence does not show that valuation alone offsets the risks from ongoing losses and repeated earnings misses.
Near term, the elevated risk of another earnings miss is a major concern after consecutive misses, including a large miss on the June 2026 print. Over the multi-year view, management has reduced watchlist loans and net financings, though leverage has fluctuated; recent momentum improved, while management and recent financial performance remain neutral overall.
A key favorable factor would be Federal Reserve rate cuts, which could support rate-sensitive real estate names. The thesis would weaken if sector bellwethers show missed results or soft guidance, or if CMTG misses again and estimates continue to be revised downward.
The 1-to-3-year view is an unresolved, high-risk turnaround thesis: progress on loans and debt supports the case, but losses and repeated misses make execution the central test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Manage executive and board transitions smoothly | A supporting condition in Claros Mortgage Trust, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No disruptive leadership changes. | Intact | Unexpected executive departures or governance issues | No disruptive changes reported Andrew Silberstein retired from the board in May 2026 with D. Pike Aloian appointed as successor; no other leadership disruptions. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net loss reduces toward $54M or less | A primary condition in Claros Mortgage Trust, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is net loss >= -$54M. | Broken | Net loss worsens beyond -$60M next quarter | Net income: $-14.257M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: net loss >= -$54M. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Nov 3, 2026-14,257,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue stabilizes near $30M next quarter | Revenue is still falling but may stabilize near $30M next quarter. | Broken | Revenue falls below $25M next quarter | Revenue: $32.639M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$30M. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Nov 3, 202632,639,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.41 → $-0.81 · observed estimates
$0.11B → $0.11B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.41 | $109,532,680 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.41 | $109,532,680 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.41 | $109,532,680 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.41 | $109,532,680 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.41 | $109,532,680 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.57 | $109,282,686 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.57 | $109,282,686 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.57 | $109,282,686 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.57 | $109,282,686 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.35 | $102,376,910 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.57 | $109,282,686 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.35 | $102,376,910 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.10 | $87,000,760 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.39 | $102,376,910 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.57 | $109,282,686 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.97 | $87,000,760 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.97 | $87,000,760 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.97 | $87,000,760 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.57 | $109,282,686 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.57 | $109,282,686 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.57 | $109,282,686 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.57 | $109,282,686 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.57 | $109,282,686 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.57 | $109,282,686 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.57 | $109,282,686 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.57 | $109,282,686 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.57 | $109,282,686 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.81 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.82 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.82 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.82 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.82 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.82 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.82 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.82 | $103,250,573 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.87 | $104,457,582 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.87 | $104,457,582 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.87 | $104,457,582 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.87 | $104,457,582 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.87 | $104,457,582 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.79 | $115,154,545 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.79 | $115,154,545 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.79 | $115,154,545 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.79 | $115,154,545 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.79 | $115,154,545 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.81 | $108,154,545 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.81 | $108,154,545 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.81 | $108,154,545 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.81 | $108,154,545 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.81 | $108,154,545 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.81 | $108,154,545 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.81 | $108,154,545 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.81 | $108,154,545 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-0.81 | $108,154,545 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.