Claros Mortgage Trust, Inc. (CMTG)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-05
$1.71-7.57%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CMTG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 13.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| -19.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 32.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 25 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CMTG — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-29
above, the Company issued a press release announcing its earnings for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 and distributed certain supplemental information. The press release and supplemental financial information have also been posted in the investor relations/presentations section of the Company’s website at www.clarosmortgage.com . The information in this Item 7.01 (including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 hereto) shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act…
Why it matters: CMTG sharply raised reserves in Q2 as it reset loss estimates. A further rise would point to more loan risk.
Worry ifQ3 results report CECL reserves above $567.4 million or above 16.9% of loan UPB.
Less concerning ifQ3 results report reserves below $567.4 million and below 16.9% of UPB, without new large loan downgrades.
Why it matters: Watchlist loans fell by $477 million through Q2. A further drop would show that loan resolutions are continuing.
Supportive ifQ3 results show watchlist loan balances below $1.2 billion. Loans were repaid or sold.
Worry ifQ3 results show watchlist balances at or above $1.2 billion, or new loans added to the watchlist.
Why it matters: Lower debt can ease pressure on CMTG's balance sheet. Q2 leverage was 2.0x before later loan resolutions and debt paydowns.
Supportive ifQ3 results report net debt-to-equity at or below 1.7x.
Worry ifQ3 results show net debt-to-equity above 2.0x.
Why it matters: REO sales can turn property holdings into cash and help reduce debt. Q2 included a sale above carrying value and a new sale agreement.
Supportive ifA filing or earnings release confirms the agreed multifamily REO sale closed. Proceeds were near its held-for-sale carrying value.
Worry ifThe sale is canceled or delayed, or closes for much less than its held-for-sale carrying value.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$250 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $654 loss on $10,000 · 6.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,882 loss on $10,000 · 68.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.