Claros Mortgage Trust, Inc. (CMTG)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.62+1.25%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CMTG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -14.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -25.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CMTG — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-29
above, the Company issued a press release announcing its earnings for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 and distributed certain supplemental information. The press release and supplemental financial information have also been posted in the investor relations/presentations section of the Company’s website at www.clarosmortgage.com . The information in this Item 7.01 (including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 hereto) shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act…
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if revenue continues to decline or if losses improve. This is key for understanding financial performance.
Watch forQ2 revenue is above $29.5M. Net losses are getting smaller.
Also watch forQ2 revenue continues to decline below $29.5M, and net losses worsen.
Why it matters: How management handles capital structure affects financial health and growth. This progress is important.
Supportive ifLook for news on refinancing or new credit deals that improve terms or cash flow.
Worry ifNo news on capital structure or bad news about credit deals.
Why it matters: A decrease in net loss would show improved financial performance. This is critical for investor confidence.
Supportive ifNet loss decreases to less than $200 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifNet loss increases or stays above $255 million.
Why it matters: Leadership changes can affect company plans and results. Investors must know if this impacts work.
Watch forNew leaders or changes in plans announced within three months.
Also watch forNo new leaders or plan changes announced in the same time.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$290 on $10,000 · ±2.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $652 loss on $10,000 · 6.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,278 loss on $10,000 · 62.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue could mean bigger problems in the business model.
Worry ifRevenue falls below $29.5M in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifRevenue stabilizes or grows above $29.5M.
Why it matters: Managing capital is important. It helps improve financial results and cut losses.
Supportive ifManagement shares news about refinancing or raising capital. This helps the balance sheet.
Worry ifThere is no news on capital management. Credit agreements are not getting worse.
Why it matters: Better liquidity helps with operations and growth. More liquidity can reduce risks and fund new chances.
Supportive ifTotal liquidity goes above $200 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifTotal liquidity is less than $100 million.
Why it matters: A drop in distributable loss means better performance. It also shows better use of capital.
Supportive ifDistributable loss per share improves to below $0.50 in the next quarter.
Worry ifDistributable loss per share remains above $0.60 or worsens.
Why it matters: If revenue growth in the real estate sector picks up, it could benefit Claros Mortgage Trust's performance.
Supportive ifReal estate sector revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Resolving watchlist loans is key to reducing risk and improving financial health. Progress here could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifResolution of at least $400 million in watchlist loans in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo big changes in watchlist loans. Watchlist loans stay the same or go up.
Why it matters: Changes in CECL reserves show how management sees credit risk. A drop may mean better asset quality.
Supportive ifCECL reserves decrease by more than 10% in the next quarter.
Worry ifCECL reserves go up or stay the same. This shows ongoing credit worries.
Why it matters: A steady or lower net debt/equity ratio shows good debt reduction. This helps financial stability.
Supportive ifNet debt/equity ratio stabilizes below 2.0x in the next quarter.
Worry ifNet debt/equity ratio goes above 2.0x. This shows more borrowing.