Centene Corporation (CNC)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-09-04
$67.04-1.44%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CNC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -43.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -3.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 40.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers
CNC — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-17
CFO — Andrew Asher: The CFO is retiring with a named external successor and a transition period, indicating an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss.
Why it matters: Stable or lower debt levels show good capital management. It shows Centene cares about financial health.
Supportive ifTotal debt remains at or below $16.4 billion after Q2 2026.
Worry ifTotal debt increases above $16.4 billion after Q2 2026.
Why it matters: An increase in revenue guidance indicates strong business momentum. It reflects growth in key segments.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue guidance raised by at least $1 billion.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue guidance stays the same or goes down.
Why it matters: Growth in revenues shows that the company can expand and manage costs well.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 premium and service revenues increase by at least 5% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 2026 premium and service revenues increase less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Changes in Medicaid membership show how well the company keeps and grows its customers. This is important for revenue.
Worry ifMedicaid membership goes up from the last quarter, reversing the recent drop.
Less concerning ifMedicaid membership keeps dropping or stays the same compared to Q1 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$139 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $374 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,273 loss on $10,000 · 32.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Changes in health benefits ratios show how well Centene controls costs. This affects profits.
Watch forHealth benefits ratio improves to below 87.3% in Q2 2026.
Also watch forHealth benefits ratio worsens above 94.3% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Reducing debt helps financial health. It aids long-term growth and stability.
Supportive ifTotal debt reported below $16.1 billion in the next earnings report.
Worry ifTotal debt increases above $16.1 billion.
Why it matters: Reducing debt shows financial health. It also improves Centene's balance sheet and investor trust.
Supportive ifDebt reduced by an additional $500 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifDebt levels remain unchanged or increase.
Why it matters: Higher cash flow shows strong performance in operations. It also shows good financial health.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $3.6 billion in the next quarter.
Worry ifIf cash flow from operations falls below $3.6 billion, it may show financial issues.
Why it matters: Reducing debt shows financial discipline and helps the company's balance sheet. This can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifCentene reports $1 billion more in debt reduction during Q2 2026.
Worry ifDebt levels remain unchanged or increase in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: HBR trends show how well the company controls medical costs, affecting profits.
Worry ifHBR for Q3 is reported above 90.5%.
Less concerning ifHBR for Q3 is reported below 90.5%.
Why it matters: A stable SG&A ratio shows good cost management. It also shows efficient operations.
Supportive ifSG&A expense ratio remains at or below 7.0% in upcoming reports.
Worry ifIf SG&A expense ratio goes above 7.0%, it shows possible cost management problems.
Why it matters: Exceeding this guidance shows strong earnings growth. It also shows good management execution. This reflects the company's recovery and focus on making money.
Supportive ifAdjusted diluted EPS was above $4.80 for 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted diluted EPS was below $4.80 for 2026.
Why it matters: Hitting this revenue target shows the business is growing well. It also shows good management. This means the company can keep growing.
Supportive ifTotal revenue reported in the range of $193.5-$197.5 billion for 2026.
Worry ifTotal revenue was below $193.5 billion for 2026.