Centene Corporation (CNC)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-11-04
$74.17-2.42%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Healthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CNC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -10.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -3.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CNC — litigation filed
Dated 2026-09-15
of this Form 8-K shall not be deemed to be "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. Nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. Forward-Looking Statements All statements, other than statements of current or historical fact, contain…
Why it matters: A higher health benefits ratio means more premium revenue goes to care costs. That could weaken the profit recovery.
Worry ifCentene reports a 2026 full-year HBR above 91.1%, the top of its guidance range.
Less concerning ifCentene reports a 2026 full-year HBR at or below 91.1%, within its stated range.
Why it matters: Marketplace membership fell year over year, while pricing and risk transfers helped its HBR. Both affect revenue and margins.
Watch forMarketplace membership rises from 3.40 million. Its HBR stays below last year's level.
Also watch forMarketplace membership falls further and its HBR rises above the prior-year level.
Why it matters: Centene cut debt and had $1.9 billion left in its note buyback program. More repayments would show continued debt reduction.
Supportive ifCentene reports more senior note buybacks, using part of the $1.9 billion still available.
Worry ifCentene reports no more note buybacks. Total debt rises above its $15.5 billion quarter-end level.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$151 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $372 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,273 loss on $10,000 · 32.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.