CNC
Centene CorporationNYSEHealth CareHealthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, CNC has a composite score of 3.5 and a signal label of "mixed." The score reflects medium confidence at 71.6, with elevated risk due to macro factors such as labor and rates. The top drivers affecting the score include macro labor, macro rates, macro growth, and macro inflation. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share0.18
- Slope (norm)0.41
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.11 → $1.05 (-4.9% / 30d). 5 raised, 8 cut, 17 covering analysts.
2 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 7 maintained. 35% of analysts rate Buy.
7 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 11.3% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning — often a turnaround setup.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
19 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Achieve EPS greater than $3.00growthbehind7% progressprovisional
2/6: “The Company expects full year 2026 adjusted diluted EPS to be greater than $3.00.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The guidance for 2026 EPS is set at greater than $3.00. However, the financials show a diluted EPS of -13.5 in 2025-Q3, indicating limited progress towards this target. The trajectory is behind expectations.
- 2.Increase investment and other incomecapital allocationmixed37% progress
4/28: “The Company is increasing its investment and other income expectation by $50 million to $1.45 billion.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company aims to increase its investment and other income by $50 million to $1.45 billion. This is a new initiative, and its impact on financials is yet to be seen. The status is mixed as it is early in the execution phase.
- 3.Increase 2025 revenue guidancegrowthwatchprovisional
4/25: “The Company is increasing its 2025 premium and service revenues guidance range by $6.0 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 1 of last 1 quarters. The company increased its 2025 revenue guidance by $6.0 billion. However, revenue in 2025-Q4 was $24.23 billion, down from $49.69 billion in 2025-Q3, indicating a challenging trajectory. The status is watch.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 50%; 252d 72%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −60%. Bad day move −5%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLV) — 1.22 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 0/100, drawdown 0/100, beta 78/100, earnings vol —.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 19.1% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Achieve EPS greater than $3.00
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Centene aims to achieve an adjusted diluted EPS greater than $3.00 for the fiscal year 2026.
BehindStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The guidance for 2026 EPS is set at greater than $3.00. However, the financials show a diluted EPS of -13.5 in 2025-Q3, indicating limited progress towards this target. The trajectory is behind expectations.
7%CEO/CFO:“The Company expects full year 2026 adjusted diluted EPS to be greater than $3.00.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-06Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“The Company expects full year 2026 adjusted diluted EPS to be greater than $3.00.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“its full year adjusted diluted EPS guidance of greater than $3.00”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“the Company is updating its full year 2025 adjusted diluted EPS forecast to at least $2.00”
- #2
Increase investment and other income
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Centene plans to increase its investment and other income by $50 million to $1.45 billion.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. The company aims to increase its investment and other income by $50 million to $1.45 billion. This is a new initiative, and its impact on financials is yet to be seen. The status is mixed as it is early in the execution phase.
37%CEO/CFO:“The Company is increasing its investment and other income expectation by $50 million to $1.45 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-28Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“The Company is increasing its investment and other income expectation by $50 million to $1.45 billion.”
- #3
Increase 2025 revenue guidance
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Centene increased its 2025 premium and service revenues guidance by $6.0 billion.
WatchStated in 1 of last 1 quarters. The company increased its 2025 revenue guidance by $6.0 billion. However, revenue in 2025-Q4 was $24.23 billion, down from $49.69 billion in 2025-Q3, indicating a challenging trajectory. The status is watch.
2025 revenue guidance increased by $6.0 billionNo scoreCEO/CFO:“The Company is increasing its 2025 premium and service revenues guidance range by $6.0 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-04-25Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (1)
- 2025-Q1Multiple sources
“The Company is increasing its 2025 premium and service revenues guidance range by $6.0 billion.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
67 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CNC Centene Corporation | +3.5 | full | elevated |
LLY Lilly (Eli) | +21 | full | moderate |
JNJ Johnson & Johnson | +18 | full | low |
ABBV AbbVie | +12 | fair | low |
UNH UnitedHealth Group | +24 | fair | elevated |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If health_care sector trend rises from +0.06 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently RAISED as of 2026-04-28)-16 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-6.8 pts
- If health_care sector trend falls from +0.06 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-2.9 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2811d agoItem 2.02
shall be deemed to be furnished and not filed: 99.1 Press release of Centene Corporation issued April 28, 2026, as to financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. EXHIBIT INDEX Exhibit Number Description 99.1* Press release of Centene Corporation issued April 28, 2026 as to financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026 104 Cover page information from Centene Corporation’s Current Report on Form 8-K filed on April 28, 2026 formatted in Inline Extensible Business…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 56 - 2026-03-241mo agoItem 5.02
DEPARTURE OF DIRECTORS OR CERTAIN OFFICERS; ELECTION OF DIRECTORS; APPOINTMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS; COMPENSATORY ARRANGEMENTS OF CERTAIN OFFICERS Effective March 18, 2026, the Board of Directors (the Board) of Centene Corporation (the Company) appointed Theodore Pienkos, 44, a registered CPA, to serve as the Company's Corporate Controller and Chief Accounting Officer. Mr. Pienkos previously has served as the Company's Deputy Corporate Controller since August 2024. Prior to that, he served as…
executive changeneutralscore 20 - 2026-03-092mo agoItem 8.01
OTHER EVENTS On March 10, 2026, the Company delivered a notice of partial redemption to redeem on March 25, 2026 (the redemption date) $1,000,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its outstanding 4.25% Notes due December 15, 2027 (the 2027 Notes) in accordance with the terms of the 2027 Notes and the Indenture dated as of December 6, 2019 between the Company and The Bank of New York Mellon Trust Company, N.A. as trustee. Following the redemption, approximately $1,186,664,000 of the 2027 Notes…
legal regulatorynegativescore 13 - 2026-03-092mo agoItem 7.01
REGULATION FD DISCLOSURE Centene Corporation (the Company) will be presenting at the Barclays 28th Annual Global Healthcare Conference on Tuesday, March 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. EDT. A simultaneous live audio webcast of the presentation on March 10 will be available at https://event.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1753406&tp_key=d357b0a0a7&tp_special=8. A webcast replay will be available following the presentation via the Company's website at www.centene.com, under the Investors section. During t…
mna activityneutralscore 13 - 2026-02-212mo agoItem 7.01
REGULATION FD DISCLOSURE Members of Centene Corporation's (the Company's) senior management team will meet with investors the week of February 23, 2026. Consistent with the Company's guidance previously provided on February 6, 2026, the senior management team plans to reaffirm the Company's 2026 full year GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) guidance of greater than $1.98 and its full year adjusted diluted EPS guidance of greater than $3.00. Non-GAAP Financial Presentation The Company is pro…
mna activityneutralscore 9
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.