Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Cinemark Holdings, Inc. (CNK)
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-05
$40.04-0.84%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.61 → 2.75 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CNK yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.09 per share | It keeps paying dividends at $0.09 per share. | Intact | dividend falls below $0.09 per share in next 4 quarters | Dividend per share: $0.09 per share FY2026-Q1; GAAP. Published target: quarterly dividend >= $0.09 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. May 1, 20260.09 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical recovery story, meaning results can vary with conditions in its industry, rather than a clearly durable compounder. The long-term thesis is supported by revenue growth and better profitability, but its signal has turned mixed and the current state is watch.
The valuation evidence is mixed: CNK is described as cheap versus peers, yet it also carries a 36% premium to peers, and the overall value assessment is expensive. The expectations gap is slightly negative, while the priced-in assessment calls the setup justified with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to a large cushion for weak execution.
Near-term, management's revenue and dividend priorities remain on track, while profitability has improved but is rated mixed. Recent results included an earnings beat, but the broader signal changed from mildly favorable to mixed, and performance remains below its industry cohort. Risk is elevated, and the snapshot flags guidance cuts as a meaningful negative scenario.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends in part on whether CNK avoids a guidance cut and sustains the revenue and profitability progress. A shift toward lower interest rates or continued strong results from sector peers could provide a favorable backdrop, while the sector headwind and CNK's relative performance remain concerns.
For the 1 to 3 year view, improving operating results support the thesis, but mixed signals, elevated risk, and expensive overall valuation keep it on watch. The evidence is low confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company is reducing losses, cutting net loss from $38.9M to $6.4M. |
| Intact |
| net loss worsens beyond -$6.4M in next 4 quarters |
Net income: $139.4M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net loss less negative than -$6.4M in next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Jul 30, 2026139,400,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth above $3.1B in FY26 | A primary condition in Cinemark Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $3.115B total revenue in FY26. | Intact | total revenue falls below $3.1B in FY26 | Revenue: $1.086B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.115B total revenue in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 30, 20261,086,400,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.45 → $2.75 · observed estimates
$3.59B → $3.73B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.45 | $3,594,026,070 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.45 | $3,594,026,070 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.45 | $3,594,026,070 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.45 | $3,594,026,070 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.45 | $3,594,026,070 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.42 | $3,607,459,962 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.46 | $3,599,906,070 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.55 | $3,644,018,339 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.55 | $3,644,018,339 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.67 | $3,659,618,280 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.59 | $3,662,750,339 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.67 | $3,659,618,280 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.64 | $3,663,208,280 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.64 | $3,663,208,280 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.59 | $3,662,750,339 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.64 | $3,663,208,280 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.64 | $3,663,208,280 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.59 | $3,662,750,339 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.64 | $3,663,208,280 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.64 | $3,663,208,280 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.64 | $3,663,208,280 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.59 | $3,662,750,339 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.59 | $3,662,750,339 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.59 | $3,662,750,339 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.59 | $3,662,750,339 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.59 | $3,662,750,339 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.59 | $3,662,750,339 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.59 | $3,662,750,339 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.59 | $3,662,750,339 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.59 | $3,662,750,339 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.59 | $3,662,750,339 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.59 | $3,662,750,339 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.59 | $3,662,750,339 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.59 | $3,662,750,339 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.59 | $3,662,750,339 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.59 | $3,662,750,339 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.59 | $3,662,750,339 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.59 | $3,662,750,339 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.59 | $3,662,750,339 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.59 | $3,662,750,339 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.59 | $3,662,750,339 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.60 | $3,667,160,423 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.61 | $3,670,154,589 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.61 | $3,670,154,589 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.61 | $3,670,154,589 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.61 | $3,670,154,589 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.61 | $3,670,154,589 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.61 | $3,670,154,589 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.61 | $3,670,154,589 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.61 | $3,670,154,589 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.61 | $3,670,754,589 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.61 | $3,670,754,589 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.61 | $3,670,754,589 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.61 | $3,670,754,589 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.61 | $3,670,754,589 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.61 | $3,670,754,589 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.61 | $3,670,754,589 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.61 | $3,670,754,589 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.61 | $3,670,754,589 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.61 | $3,670,754,589 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.61 | $3,670,754,589 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.61 | $3,670,754,589 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.61 | $3,670,754,589 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.61 | $3,677,263,851 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.61 | $3,677,263,851 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.61 | $3,677,263,851 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.61 | $3,677,263,851 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.61 | $3,677,263,851 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.61 | $3,677,263,851 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.61 | $3,677,263,851 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.61 | $3,677,263,851 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.61 | $3,677,263,851 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.61 | $3,677,263,851 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.61 | $3,677,263,851 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.61 | $3,677,263,851 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.61 | $3,677,263,851 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.62 | $3,683,138,851 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.62 | $3,683,138,851 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.62 | $3,683,138,851 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.62 | $3,683,138,851 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.62 | $3,683,138,851 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.65 | $3,694,930,768 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.69 | $3,706,524,768 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.69 | $3,706,524,768 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.69 | $3,706,524,768 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.69 | $3,706,524,768 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.69 | $3,706,524,768 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.69 | $3,706,524,768 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.71 | $3,714,474,767 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.71 | $3,714,474,767 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.71 | $3,714,474,767 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.71 | $3,714,474,767 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.72 | $3,716,647,723 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.72 | $3,716,647,723 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.72 | $3,716,647,723 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.72 | $3,716,647,723 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.72 | $3,716,647,723 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.72 | $3,716,647,723 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.72 | $3,716,647,723 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.74 | $3,721,181,057 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.74 | $3,721,181,057 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.74 | $3,721,181,057 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.74 | $3,724,320,222 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.75 | $3,732,629,783 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-05 | $2.75 | $3,732,629,783 | 9 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 6 recorded
3 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.