Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Cannae Holdings, Inc. (CNNE)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$17.83-2.41%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CNNE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA between $80M and $90M in Q2 2026 | Management targets adjusted EBITDA of $80 million to $90 million. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $80 million in Q2 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a portfolio-transformation situation, not a proven durable compounder: management is shifting toward sports and entertainment assets while working to improve cash flow and earnings. The long-term thesis is in a watch state, with mixed progress and weak recent financial performance.
CNNE trades at a sizable premium versus peers, and the valuation model shows a wide gap between expectations and the evidence. The premium appears to reflect durable business qualities, but the evidence snapshot does not show that recent weak results support those expectations; the model’s confidence is medium.
Near term, erratic earnings and recent misses leave execution at risk, despite an earnings beat in August. Management has continued the portfolio shift, including selling Watkins, but revenue has declined and operating income remained negative; cash from operations was also negative in the first quarter. The second-quarter cash flow and Adjusted EBITDA guidance offer a test of whether performance is improving.
The multi-year thesis depends on whether management can turn the asset changes into stronger cash generation and profitability. A guidance cut on the next call would add a meaningful concern, while continued strength from sector bellwethers such as MCD, SBUX, and YUM could support the sector backdrop; weaker results from those companies could remove that support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CNNE’s thesis remains uncertain: the strategic shift is active, but weak results and a peer premium leave little evidence yet that execution is closing the expectations gap. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Cannae aims for free cash flow near $40 million in Q2 2026. |
| Intact |
| Free Cash Flow falls below $35 million in Q2 2026 |
Free cash flow: $-6.1M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $35 million and <= $45 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 10, 2026-6,100,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stable management team after CFO transition | A supporting condition in Cannae Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No further key executive departures in next 6 months. | Under Pressure | Additional key executive departures occur within 6 months | 1 key departure (CFO) vs 0 allowed CFO Bryan Coy resigned June 12, 2026. No other key executive departures reported in subsequent news or events. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue between $490M and $505M in Q2 2026 | A primary condition in Cannae Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $490 million and <= $505 million. | Intact | Revenue falls below $490 million in Q2 2026 | Revenue: $102.2M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $490 million and <= $505 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 10, 2026102,200,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.67 → $-1.49 · observed estimates
$0.39B → $0.39B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.67 | $393,433,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.67 | $393,433,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.67 | $393,433,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.67 | $393,433,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.67 | $393,433,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.67 | $393,433,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.67 | $393,433,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.67 | $393,433,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.67 | $393,433,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.67 | $393,433,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.67 | $393,433,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.47 | $396,800,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.47 | $396,800,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.47 | $396,800,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-1.47 | $396,800,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.47 | $396,800,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.47 | $396,800,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.47 | $396,800,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-1.47 | $396,800,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.49 | $409,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.49 | $409,300,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.47 | $396,800,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.47 | $396,800,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.47 | $396,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.47 | $396,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.47 | $396,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.47 | $396,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.42 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.49 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.49 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.49 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.49 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.49 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.49 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.49 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.49 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.49 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.49 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.49 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.49 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.49 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.49 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.49 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.49 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.49 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.49 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.49 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.49 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.49 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.49 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.49 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.49 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.49 | $392,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.