Cannae Holdings, Inc. (CNNE)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$15.83-0.06%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
Cannae aims for free cash flow near $40 million in Q2 2026. Revenue is guided between $490 million and $505 million for the same quarter. Management targets adjusted EBITDA of $80 million to $90 million. These goals show a plan to improve cash and profits.
The company lost money recently and missed earnings several times. Revenue is expected to shrink about 4% next year. The CFO recently left, which may hurt execution. These risks could delay the turnaround.
The market expects about 4% revenue decline next year. Our fair value is near $8.59, close to the current price. We see risk in execution but some chance of hitting cash flow and profit targets.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $80 million in Q2 2026
Target Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $80 million to $90 million for 2026 as a key financial performance metric.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story in the Consumer Discretionary sector. The current thesis state is cautious, as the company is working to transform its portfolio while facing ongoing financial challenges.
The market seems to be pricing in a premium compared to peers, indicating that investors may have high expectations despite the company's recent struggles. The valuation appears unjustified given the weak financial performance and elevated risks.
Management is focused on improving cash flow and achieving positive earnings, but recent results show ongoing losses. The near-term risk is significant, with a notable probability of missing guidance based on past performance.
The future performance of CNNE hinges on its ability to execute its transformation strategy and improve financial metrics. Additionally, external factors like inflation trends and the performance of sector leaders will play a crucial role in shaping outcomes.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The company signaled second-half buybacks, enhancing its cash flow outlook. This development supports a more favorable view of the company's financial position. There are no new threats impacting the thesis at this time.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income was negative $22.1M in 2026-Q1 and negative $24.1M in 2025-Q4, indicating challenges in profitability. Management's guidance for Adjusted EBITDA of $80M-$90M for 2026-Q2 shows a target to improve earnings, but recent operating losses suggest limited progress so far.
“Management provided an outlook for the second quarter of 2026, noting Adjusted EBITDA between $80 Million and $90 Million.”
“We primarily acquire interests in operating companies and are actively engaged in managing and operating a core group of those companies.”
Breaks if: Free Cash Flow falls below $35 million in Q2 2026
Focus on improving free cash flow generation as part of capital allocation and financial health.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operating activities was negative $21.2M in 2026-Q1 and guidance for 2026-Q2 Free Cash Flow is $35M to $45M, indicating management's focus on improving cash flow. The trajectory shows a shift toward positive cash flow generation as guided.
“Management provided an outlook for the second quarter of 2026, noting Free Cash Flow ranging from $35 Million to $45 Million.”
“We primarily acquire interests in operating companies and are actively engaged in managing and operating a core group of those companies.”
Breaks if: Additional key executive departures occur within 6 months
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $490 million in Q2 2026
Provide revenue guidance for the second quarter of 2026 in the range of $490 million to $505 million.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Actual revenue declined from $103.3M in 2025-Q4 to $96.2M in 2026-Q1. Management's guidance for 2026-Q2 revenue is $490M to $505M, reflecting expectations for growth over the full year. The trajectory shows a recent decline but management expects recovery in revenue.
“Management provided an outlook for the second quarter of 2026, noting revenue was expected to range between $490 Million and $505 Million.”
“We primarily acquire interests in operating companies and are actively engaged in managing and operating a core group of those companies.”
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CNNE's path will depend on its management's execution and market conditions. Not investment advice.