Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR)
NYSEEnergyCoalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$75.21-6.25%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyCoalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.30 → 6.44 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CNR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Return 75% of free cash flow to shareholders | The company returned 66% progress toward returning 75% of free cash flow to shareholders. | Intact | Return falls below 50% of free cash flow over next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “During Q2 2026, the company invested $63.0 million to repurchase 719,904 shares of its common stock at an average share price of $87.54.” “During Q2, the marketing team secured 16 million tons of new sales commitments across all segments for delivery in future periods, at prices expected to support advantageous margins.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical energy-sector business, where results can shift with sector conditions and demand. The long-term thesis is supported by rising sales volumes and cash returns, but the current state is watch because performance has lagged its industry cohort.
The evidence describes CNR as expensive, with a sizable premium versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative. The priced-in assessment says that valuation is justified, though confidence is medium and the case does not rest on strong execution quality.
Near-term, recent revenue and sales volumes rose, and management secured new sales commitments; cash returns are also tracking the stated plan. Capital spending is mixed against its stated range, and erratic earnings surprises and recent peer misses remain risks. Over the multi-year view, results hinge on continued volume growth and disciplined spending.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could sustain the energy-sector tailwind. Misses or lower guidance from those bellwethers could weaken that support. Management’s delivery on sales growth, cash returns, and capital spending remains central to the thesis.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CNR has evidence of growing volumes and cash returns, but elevated risk, uneven relative performance, and expensive valuation leave the thesis dependent on execution and sector conditions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Free cash flow reaches at least $55.5 million in FY26 | Free cash flow is expected to rise to $55.5 million in 2026. | Intact | Free cash flow falls below $39 million in FY26 | Free cash flow: $148.546M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=55.5 USD_MILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 18, 2026148,546,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Improve operational cash flow to at least $119 million quarterly | Free cash flow is expected to rise to $55.5 million in 2026. | Intact | Quarterly operating cash flow falls below $107 million | Cash from operations: $250.447M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=119 USD_MILLIONS quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 18, 2026250,447,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to at least $1.1 billion in FY26 | A primary condition in Core Natural Resources, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=1100 USD_MILLIONS. | Intact | Revenue falls below $1.0 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $1.141B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=1100 USD_MILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20261,141,014,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Core expects a substantial improvement in the segment’s sales volumes and unit costs in the year’s back half.” “During Q2, the marketing team secured 16 million tons of new sales commitments across all segments for delivery in future periods, at prices expected to support advantageous margins.” Revenue was $1.141 billion in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$6.71 → $6.44 · observed estimates
$4.58B → $4.63B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $6.71 | $4,578,257,050 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $6.71 | $4,578,257,050 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $6.71 | $4,578,257,050 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $6.71 | $4,578,257,050 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $6.66 | $4,571,859,990 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $6.22 | $4,609,569,993 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $6.66 | $4,571,859,990 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $6.66 | $4,571,859,990 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $6.22 | $4,609,569,993 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.66 | $4,571,859,990 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $6.66 | $4,571,859,990 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $6.22 | $4,609,569,993 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $6.22 | $4,609,569,993 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.22 | $4,609,569,993 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $6.23 | $4,609,569,993 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $6.23 | $4,609,569,993 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $6.44 | $4,539,616,770 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $6.23 | $4,609,569,993 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $6.23 | $4,609,569,993 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.23 | $4,609,569,993 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $6.57 | $4,559,783,440 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $6.23 | $4,609,569,993 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $6.23 | $4,609,569,993 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $6.23 | $4,609,569,993 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $6.23 | $4,609,569,993 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $6.23 | $4,609,569,993 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $6.23 | $4,609,569,993 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.44 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.44 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.44 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.44 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.44 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.44 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.44 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.44 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.44 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.30 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.30 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.30 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.30 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.30 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.30 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.30 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.30 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.30 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.30 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.30 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.30 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.30 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.30 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.30 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.30 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.30 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.30 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.30 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.30 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.30 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.30 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.30 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.30 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.30 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.30 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.30 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.30 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.30 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.30 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.30 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.30 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.30 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.30 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.30 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.30 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.30 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.30 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.30 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.30 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.30 | $4,626,038,629 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.39 | $4,639,235,184 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.50 | $4,639,235,184 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.50 | $4,637,334,803 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.50 | $4,637,334,803 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $6.50 | $4,637,334,803 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $6.50 | $4,637,334,803 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $6.50 | $4,637,334,803 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $6.50 | $4,637,334,803 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $6.50 | $4,637,334,803 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.50 | $4,637,334,803 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.50 | $4,637,334,803 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $6.50 | $4,637,334,803 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.50 | $4,637,334,803 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.50 | $4,637,334,803 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.50 | $4,637,334,803 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.50 | $4,637,334,803 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.50 | $4,637,334,803 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.50 | $4,637,334,803 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.50 | $4,637,334,803 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.44 | $4,632,409,803 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.44 | $4,632,409,803 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.44 | $4,632,409,803 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.44 | $4,632,409,803 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.44 | $4,632,409,803 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.44 | $4,632,409,803 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.44 | $4,632,409,803 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.44 | $4,632,409,803 | 3 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.