Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR)
NYSEEnergyCoalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$75.21-6.25%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyCoalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CNR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -15.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 7.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 1 industry peers
CNR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-02-12
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Core Natural Resources, Inc. (the "Company," "we," "us," or "our") issued a press release on February 12, 2026 announcing its 2025 fourth quarter results. A copy of the press release is attached to this Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1. Please refer to our website at www.corenaturalresources.com for additional information regarding the Company. For example, periodically during the quarter, we may provide investor presentations, which would appear on our…
Why it matters: Q2 costs fell to $85.65 per ton, lifting the segment's cash margin. Continued gains would support the full-year cost range.
Supportive ifQ3 metallurgical cash cost per ton is $85.65 or lower, within the 2026 range of $86 to $91.
Worry ifQ3 metallurgical cash cost per ton rises above $91, the top of the 2026 guidance range.
Why it matters: Core set a $325 million to $375 million spending range. Staying within it would show spending remains in line with its plan.
Worry ifThe next filing raises 2026 capital spending guidance to more than $375 million.
Less concerning ifThe company keeps 2026 capital spending guidance at $325 million to $375 million, or lowers it.
Why it matters: Tucker took over as CFO in August. The November 5 earnings report will show whether the finance team keeps its cash and spending plans on track.
Watch forThe November 5 report keeps the 2026 spending range at $325 million to $375 million and reports positive free cash flow.
Also watch forThe November 5 report cuts the spending plan or reports negative free cash flow.
Why it matters: Q2 sales fell to 10.2 million tons, and costs rose above revenue. A rebound would support the full-year volume plan.
Supportive ifQ3 Powder River Basin sales rise above 10.2 million tons, with cash cost per ton at or below $14.85.
Worry ifQ3 sales stay at or below 10.2 million tons, or cash cost per ton stays above realized revenue per ton.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$142 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $417 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,139 loss on $10,000 · 31.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Core targets returning about 75% of free cash flow. It said second-half returns could rise as cash flow improves.
Supportive ifFor Q3, reported buybacks and dividends equal about 75% or more of free cash flow.
Worry ifFor Q3, buybacks and dividends fall below 75% of free cash flow, or the company cuts its $0.10 quarterly dividend.