Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR)
NYSEEnergyCoalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$99.62+2.25%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyCoalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CNR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -2.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CNR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-02-12
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Core Natural Resources, Inc. (the "Company," "we," "us," or "our") issued a press release on February 12, 2026 announcing its 2025 fourth quarter results. A copy of the press release is attached to this Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1. Please refer to our website at www.corenaturalresources.com for additional information regarding the Company. For example, periodically during the quarter, we may provide investor presentations, which would appear on our…
Why it matters: Coal prices directly impact revenue and margins. Price trends can signal market demand and operational health.
Watch forThermal coal prices rise above $58.86 per ton.
Also watch forThermal coal prices drop below $58.86 per ton.
Why it matters: Strong free cash flow helps Core's capital return program. It shows operational strength.
Supportive ifQ3 free cash flow generation reported above $150 million.
Worry ifFree cash flow generation was below $100 million.
Why it matters: The dividend shows that the company wants to give cash back to shareholders.
Supportive ifA quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share was declared on September 18, 2026.
Worry ifNo dividend declared or amount changed from $0.10 per share.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows improved cost control and efficiency. This can lead to more profit.
Supportive ifOperating income is over $155.8 million in Q3.
Worry ifOperating income falls below $155.8 million in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$157 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $501 loss on $10,000 · 5.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,139 loss on $10,000 · 31.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Smart spending helps keep finances stable. It aligns with what management wants.
Watch forIn Q3, capital spending was between $325 million and $375 million.
Also watch forIn Q3, capital spending was outside the $325 million to $375 million range.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows Core can take advantage of market chances. This matches management's goals.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth is over 5% compared to last year. This shows strong operational performance.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is 5% or less compared to last year. This suggests operational problems.
Why it matters: The settlement may boost earnings and cash flow, showing stability.
Supportive ifQ3 earnings include a positive impact from the Leer South insurance settlement.
Worry ifQ3 earnings show no benefit from the insurance settlement.
Why it matters: Lower costs mean better efficiency. This helps make money in a tough market.
Supportive ifCash cost of coal sold in the Powder River Basin segment stays below $14.85 per ton.
Worry ifCash cost of coal sold in the Powder River Basin segment exceeds $14.85 per ton.
Why it matters: Higher sales would show that Core's thermal coal is in demand.
Supportive ifHigh C.V. Thermal segment sales volumes exceed 9 million tons in Q3 2026.
Worry ifSales volumes fall below 8 million tons in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The Leer South mine has had fire problems. This affects production and costs.
Worry ifManagement says operations at Leer South are back on track. There are no more fire issues.
Less concerning ifThere are new fire problems or delays at Leer South.
Why it matters: Coal prices affect Core's profits. Big changes can impact how much money they make.
Worry ifAverage coal prices go up a lot. This helps margins in the metallurgical segment.
Less concerning ifAverage coal prices go down. This leads to lower margins and profits.
Why it matters: Consistent returns show strong finances and care for stockholders.
Supportive ifCore returns at least 75% of free cash flow to stockholders in Q3 2026.
Worry ifCapital returns drop below 60% of free cash flow in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Coal prices affect revenue and profit. Watching price trends helps understand market conditions and Core's finances.
Worry ifAverage coal prices rise above $60 per ton in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifAverage coal prices drop below $50 per ton in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Strong performance at these mines is crucial for revenue and margin growth.
Supportive ifOperational metrics show better performance at Leer South and West Elk than in Q1 2026.
Worry ifOperational metrics decline at Leer South and West Elk compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Growing revenue shows strong demand and success. It helps the company's growth plans.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported above $1.1 billion, continuing the growth trend from Q2.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is below $1.1 billion. This may show demand problems.
Why it matters: New sales can boost margins and cash flow. This shows better operations.
Supportive ifMargins rise with new sales of 16 million tons at good prices.
Worry ifMargins fall even with new sales. This shows pressure on prices.
Why it matters: The CFO change may impact financial plans and actions. Stability is important for investor trust.
Watch forFinancial performance gets better after the change. This shows good leadership.
Also watch forFinancial performance gets worse after the change. This raises worries about leadership.