Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
Cineverse Corp (CNVS)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.51-5.03%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.39 → 0.41 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CNVS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA of $10-$20 million in fiscal 2027 | Management targets adjusted EBITDA of $10-$20 million in 2027, showing a path to profitability. | Improving | adjusted EBITDA falls below $10 million in fiscal 2027 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth and integration story, not yet a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: management has reaffirmed ambitious FY 2027 goals, but recent performance is weak and management execution has been volatile.
CNVS is assessed as cheap versus peers, but the valuation model has low confidence and the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations remain demanding relative to the evidence. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to concentrated valuation fragility.
Near term, earnings execution is a key risk: the company has a run of consecutive misses, and the next-quarter miss risk is elevated. Over the multi-year view, management is targeting FY 2027 revenue of $115 million to $120 million after FY 2026 revenue of $65.7 million, with acquisitions contributing significantly; adjusted EBITDA is targeted to move from a FY 2026 loss of $3.4 million to positive $10 million to $20 million. Integration is substantially complete and cost savings are progressing, but the EBITDA path is still mixed.
The thesis weakens if management cuts its reaffirmed guidance on the next call, especially given the history of earnings misses. It depends on sustaining the revenue trajectory and capturing the planned cost reductions and synergies well enough to reach positive adjusted EBITDA. Fed rate cuts and stronger results or guidance from sector peers could provide a sector tailwind, but the evidence does not establish how much that would help CNVS.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CNVS remains a high-risk execution story, with ambitious growth goals set against weak recent results and uncertain profitability. The long-term thesis hinges on meeting guidance and converting acquisition integration into durable cost savings. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The Giant Worldwide acquisition should add $15-$17 million in revenue. |
| Intact |
| Giant Worldwide acquisition fails or contributes less than $15 million revenue in 2027 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stable and effective management team | A supporting condition in Cineverse Corp's published investment case. The stated target is No further key executive departures in next 4 quarters. | Under Pressure | Additional key executive departures occur within next 4 quarters | 1 key executive departure vs 0 allowed Form 8-K filed May 28, 2026, confirms CFO Mark Lindsey's departure with a separation agreement. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth to $115-$120 million in fiscal 2027 | A primary condition in Cineverse Corp's published investment case. The stated target is >= $115 million. | Intact | revenue falls below $115 million in fiscal 2027 | Revenue: $30.595M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $115 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 13, 202630,595,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Management Commentary Chris McGurk, Cineverse Chairman and CEO , stated: “We registered another very strong quarter: Fueled by the acquisitions of Giant Worldwide and IndiCue, our total revenues increased by 175% and we increased Adjusted EBITDA by $2.6 million.” “"Given that, we reaffirm our full year Fiscal 2027 guidance of $115 to $120 million in total revenues and $10 to $20 million in Adjusted EBITDA.”” Revenue was $12.357 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.10 → $0.41 · observed estimates
$0.13B → $0.14B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.10 | $126,720,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.10 | $126,720,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.10 | $126,720,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.10 | $126,720,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.10 | $126,720,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.10 | $126,720,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.10 | $126,720,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.10 | $126,720,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.10 | $126,720,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.10 | $126,720,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.10 | $126,720,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.10 | $126,720,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.10 | $126,720,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.10 | $126,720,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.10 | $126,720,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.10 | $126,720,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.10 | $126,720,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.10 | $126,720,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.10 | $126,720,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.10 | $126,720,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.10 | $126,720,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.10 | $126,720,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.10 | $126,720,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.10 | $126,720,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.10 | $126,720,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.10 | $126,720,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.10 | $126,720,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.10 | $126,720,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.39 | $134,193,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.62 | $137,772,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.62 | $137,772,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.62 | $137,772,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.62 | $137,772,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.62 | $137,772,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.62 | $137,772,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.62 | $137,772,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.62 | $137,772,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.62 | $137,772,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.62 | $137,772,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.62 | $137,772,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.62 | $137,772,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.41 | $138,828,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.41 | $138,828,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.41 | $138,828,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.41 | $138,828,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.41 | $138,828,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.41 | $138,828,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.41 | $138,828,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.41 | $138,828,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.41 | $138,828,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.41 | $138,828,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.41 | $138,828,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.41 | $138,828,500 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 13, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.