Cineverse Corp (CNVS)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.51-5.03%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CNVS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -74.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 41.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 116.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers
CNVS — credit agreement
Dated 2026-09-04
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Cineverse Pans LLC (“Pans Borrower”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Cineverse Corp. (the “Company”) and BondIt LLC (“Pans Lender”) entered into, on August 31, 2026 and dated as of August 28, 2026, a Loan and Security Agreement (the “Pans Loan Agreement”). The Pans Loan Agreement provides for a term loan with a principal amount not to exceed $3,125,000 (the “Pans Loan”), and a maturity date of October 26, 2027. The Pans Loan includes a minimum interes…
Why it matters: Cineverse lost $3.4 million in adjusted EBITDA in FY 2026. Its new target is $10 million to $20 million for FY 2027.
Supportive ifThe Nov. 13 report keeps the $10 million to $20 million target and shows positive adjusted EBITDA for the quarter.
Worry ifThe Nov. 13 report cuts the target below $10 million or shows negative adjusted EBITDA for the quarter.
Why it matters: More savings could lift profit as the acquired businesses join Cineverse. Management said most actions were due by the end of Q2.
Supportive ifThe Nov. 13 report says the planned actions are complete and confirms about $13 million in annual savings and synergies.
Worry ifThe Nov. 13 report says key actions are still open or lowers the $13 million annual target.
Why it matters: Cineverse had $4.3 million in cash at June 30 and limited room on its credit line. It later took a loan of up to $3.125 million for Pans.
Worry ifA filing or earnings report shows higher cash, more unused credit, and no new debt tied to the Pans loan.
Less concerning ifA filing shows more borrowing, less cash, or tighter loan terms before the loan matures on Oct. 26, 2027.
Why it matters: Management kept its full-year revenue range at $115 million to $120 million. The next report can show whether growth stays on that path.
Supportive ifOn Nov. 13, management keeps revenue guidance at $115 million or higher and reports revenue that supports the range.
Worry ifOn Nov. 13, management cuts revenue guidance below $115 million or reports results that make the range out of reach.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$146 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $493 loss on $10,000 · 4.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,397 loss on $10,000 · 54.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Cineverse set an Oct. 9 wide re-release of Pan's Labyrinth. Ticket sales can show if this film adds income and viewers.
Watch forCineverse reports strong ticket sales and follow-on streaming interest after the Oct. 9 release.
Also watch forCineverse reports weak ticket sales or no clear streaming lift after the Oct. 9 release.