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CNX
CNX ResourcesNYSEEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-06-12
$33.15+3.24%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 16% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening, as it is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. If CNX cuts guidance on the next call, that would be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas E&p
- Market cap
- $4.68B
- Employees
- 390
- IPO date
- 1998-12-15
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-23
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $33.15. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$28.91consensus
Range $20.15 – $39.58
vs price: +15% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$40.38consensus
Range $38.63 – $58.36
vs price: -18% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $33 CNX trades at 11× p/e, below its 13× p/e peer median. Our $30 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
11.3x
peer 12.6x · own history 6.8x
Premium
0.9x peer
1.7x its own history
Growth the price needs
11%
our forecast 100%
Our fair value
$29.78
range $20.58 – $39.58
WhyExtended vs its own history
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 11% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 100%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 0.93x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated fragile grew net income 38% of the time over the next year (vs 44% for the rest of the cohort, n=602).
13th pctl · Energy
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
Not enough signal yet.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +3.5% / 30d, n=6for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.54 → $0.56 (+3.5% / 30d). 4 raised, 1 cut, 6 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 8% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 20.9% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: energy is in mature, with may be transitioning (~0.8 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strongProvisional
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$116.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$351.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,464.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 14d
Watch for improvement in net income in Q2
Why it matters: Higher net income means the company is controlling costs well. This helps overall growth.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Net income increases compared to the previous quarter.
Disproves:Net income decreases compared to the previous quarter.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CNX yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for changes in oil prices following CPI and PPI reports
- Watch for energy revenue growth to pick up above 8% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like COP, EOG, and OXY keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Energy sector momentum should keep lifting CNX and other Energy names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If CNX raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.8%), that would benefit CNX and other Energy names (the sector typically holds up well in inflationary environments).
Downside triggers
- If CNX cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like COP, EOG, and OXY start missing or guiding lower, the Energy tailwind helping CNX and other Energy names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-301mo agoItem 2.02
and Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1, are being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and will not be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, unless specifically identified therein as being incorporated therein by reference.
Earnings preannouncement—
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-7.2 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.