Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
PC Connection, Inc. (CNXN)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyTechnology DistributorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$79.67-9.27%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyTechnology DistributorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.46 → 4.78 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CNXN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS at or above $0.77 in Q4 2026 | Analysts expect steady earnings near $3.92 per share in 2026. | Intact | EPS guidance falls below $0.68 for Q4 2026 | Diluted EPS: $1.24 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $0.77. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Oct 28, 20261.24 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CNXN is a growth-oriented technology distributor with a recent improvement in business momentum, rather than a proven durable compounder. The 1 to 3 year thesis is intact, but earnings quality is still fragile and confidence in the evidence is medium.
The valuation is described as cheap versus peers, and the pricing signal is tagged as justified, with low concern that fragility is being overlooked. The expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting expectations are not clearly undemanding despite the relative valuation discount.
Near-term results have been strong: latest-quarter net sales rose 23.3% year over year, and Enterprise and Business Solutions both grew. Management is on track with its growth priorities, but a history of a deep miss and recent peer misses leave some risk; a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on sustained profitable growth and continued expansion in Enterprise and Business Solutions. A guidance cut is the main stated negative scenario, while rate cuts and steadier results from sector peers are potential tailwinds.
The 1 to 3 year view is intact, supported by stronger recent performance and a valuation described as cheap versus peers, but fragile earnings quality keeps execution important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in PC Connection, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Gross profit >= $132M. |
| Intact |
| Gross profit falls below $132M next year |
Gross profit: $161.861M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Gross profit >= $132M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 28, 2026161,861,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income improvement | Profit improved, with operating income up from $14.5M to $20.2M. | Intact | Operating income falls below $20M next year | Operating income: $40.98M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $20M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 28, 202640,980,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth at or above 3% YoY | A primary condition in PC Connection, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=3% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 3% next year | Revenue growth: 23.3% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=3% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 28, 202623.304535 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.24 → $4.78 · observed estimates
$3.13B → $3.42B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.24 | $3,127,641,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.24 | $3,127,472,450 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.24 | $3,127,470,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.24 | $3,127,472,450 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.24 | $3,127,470,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.24 | $3,127,472,450 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.41 | $3,120,463,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.46 | $3,183,353,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.46 | $3,186,245,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.71 | $3,326,430,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.78 | $3,421,858,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.78 | $3,421,858,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.78 | $3,421,858,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.78 | $3,421,858,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.78 | $3,421,858,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.78 | $3,421,858,000 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.