PC Connection, Inc. (CNXN)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyTechnology DistributorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$84.35+0.98%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyTechnology DistributorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CNXN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -1.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CNXN — earnings miss
Dated 2025-10-29
of this Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 (the “Securities Act”), except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: A dividend increase shows trust in cash flow. It also shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifLook for news of a quarterly dividend increase over $0.20.
Worry ifNo increase in the quarterly dividend from $0.20.
Why it matters: News about the share buyback program shows management's trust in the company.
Supportive ifMore share buybacks announced beyond the current $81.2 million.
Worry ifNo updates or a reduction in the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: Regular dividend payments show strong cash flow and smart spending.
Supportive ifThe company pays the declared dividend of $0.20 per share.
Worry ifThe company cuts or stops the dividend payment.
Why it matters: This report will show if revenue growth continues or slows. Investors will focus on sales trends.
Watch forQ2 2026 net sales increase year over year by more than 3%.
Also watch forQ2 2026 net sales decrease year over year or grow less than 3%.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$114 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $236 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,690 loss on $10,000 · 16.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More share buybacks may mean that management trusts the company's value.
Supportive ifShare repurchases in Q3 exceed $10 million.
Worry ifShare repurchases in Q3 are less than $5 million.
Why it matters: Gross profit margin went up a bit in Q1 2026. This shows better cost management.
Supportive ifGross profit margin exceeds 19% in Q2 2026.
Worry ifGross profit margin falls below 18% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A decline in net income may show problems in operations or market issues. This raises concerns about the company's profits.
Worry ifNet income reported below $30 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifNet income remains above $30 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Exceeding this growth rate would show that the company is improving its revenue performance. It would indicate that management's priority to increase revenue growth is on track.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 3.0% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is below 3.0% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in gross margin may mean costs are rising. It could also mean pricing pressures are hurting profits.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin falls below 18%.
Less concerning ifQ3 gross margin stays at or above 18%.
Why it matters: Better margins show that management is keeping costs down. This helps them make more money.
Supportive ifOperating income margin rises from 5.0% in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating income margin goes down or stays the same.
Why it matters: Going above this amount shows the company is improving operating income. It shows focus on costs.
Supportive ifOperating income is over $20.2 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating income falls below $20.2 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: This would indicate a slowdown in revenue growth, which is a key management priority.
Worry ifQ3 net sales growth below 7% year over year would confirm a slowdown.
Less concerning ifQ3 net sales growth above 7% year over year would show continued strength.
Why it matters: More share repurchases show confidence in the company’s finances. It also shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifIf share repurchases exceed $50 million, it shows strong capital use.
Worry ifNo new share repurchase news or cuts in the program would show caution.
Why it matters: A drop in this segment may show problems in government and education markets. This could hurt overall growth.
Worry ifSales below $130 million in Public Sector Solutions would show weakness.
Less concerning ifSales above $140 million would show stability in this segment.