The Vita Coco Company (COCO)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-11-04
$63.63-2.81%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · COCO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 0.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 25.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
COCO — capital allocation
Dated 2026-07-22
Based in part upon the representations of the Copra securityholders in connection with the Merger Agreement, the issuance of the Closing Stock Consideration was conducted pursuant to an exemption from registration under Section 4(a)(2) of the Securities Act. The Closing Stock Consideration has not been registered under the Securities Act or any state securities laws, and the Closing Stock Consideration may not be offered or sold in the United States absent registration with the Commission or…
Why it matters: Tariff refunds helped year-to-date margins, while higher freight, transport costs, and Copra mix may weigh on results. The full-year figure tests the balance.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 gross margin is below 40%.
Less concerning ifFull-year 2026 gross margin is 40% or higher.
Why it matters: Copra added more private label sales, but management tied future gains to integration and better margins. Its results test that plan.
Supportive ifFuture company reports show Copra sales growth. They say its adjusted EBITDA margin adds to margins after full integration.
Worry ifFuture reports show Copra sales falling. Or they say its adjusted EBITDA margin does not add to margins after full integration.
Why it matters: Management tied its 2026 sales outlook to low-20s growth for its main brand. Slower growth would weaken that sales driver.
Worry ifVita Coco Coconut Water net sales growth for full-year 2026 is below 20%.
Less concerning ifVita Coco Coconut Water net sales growth for full-year 2026 is at least 20%.
Why it matters: Management guided to about 33% in Q4 as costs rise before price changes take effect. A lower result would point to more pressure.
Worry ifQ4 2026 gross margin is below 33%.
Less concerning ifQ4 2026 gross margin is 33% or higher.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$188 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $459 loss on $10,000 · 4.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,972 loss on $10,000 · 39.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The company raised its sales range after strong Q3 results. Sales below the new floor would miss that raised goal.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 net sales are below $810 million.
Less concerning ifFull-year 2026 net sales are at least $810 million.