The Vita Coco Company (COCO)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-09-04
$55.13+0.09%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · COCO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -20.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 26.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 47.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers
COCO — capital allocation
Dated 2026-07-22
Based in part upon the representations of the Copra securityholders in connection with the Merger Agreement, the issuance of the Closing Stock Consideration was conducted pursuant to an exemption from registration under Section 4(a)(2) of the Securities Act. The Closing Stock Consideration has not been registered under the Securities Act or any state securities laws, and the Closing Stock Consideration may not be offered or sold in the United States absent registration with the Commission or…
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect company strategy and performance. This can impact stock value.
Watch forAnnouncement of a new executive or board member with a strong track record.
Also watch forNo new announcements about executives. No one is leaving.
Why it matters: Keeping SG&A growth in check helps make more money and boosts adjusted EBITDA.
Supportive ifSG&A expenses increase by less than 10% compared to the previous year.
Worry ifSG&A expenses increase by more than 10% compared to the previous year.
Why it matters: Higher EBITDA guidance means the company is doing well in its operations.
Supportive ifEBITDA guidance is raised to over $138 million for 2026.
Worry ifEBITDA guidance stays at or below $138 million for 2026.
Why it matters: A slowdown in sales growth could signal weakening demand for coconut water.
Worry ifQ2 net sales growth below 30% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 net sales growth meets or exceeds 30% year over year.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$152 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $475 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,444 loss on $10,000 · 34.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means the company is working better. This can bring in more investors.
Supportive ifOperating income grew by more than 20% compared to last year.
Worry ifOperating income grew by less than 20% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Watching SG&A expenses helps us see how well management controls costs. High expenses can hurt profits.
Watch forSG&A expenses grew less than 5% year over year in Q3. This shows good cost control.
Also watch forSG&A expenses grew more than 10% year over year in Q3. This suggests rising costs without more revenue.
Why it matters: Strong revenue from Copra will show the success of the acquisition and market expansion.
Supportive ifCopra's reported revenue exceeds $100 million for the full year 2026.
Worry ifCopra's revenue falls below $100 million for the full year 2026.
Why it matters: Continued strong growth in coconut water sales is key to Vita Coco's overall revenue growth. This will indicate if the brand maintains its market leadership.
Supportive ifVita Coco Coconut Water sales grow at least 20% year over year.
Worry ifCoconut Water sales growth drops below 15% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in gross margin could indicate rising costs or pricing pressures.
Worry ifGross margin falls below 38% in Q2.
Less concerning ifGross margin remains at or above 38% in Q2.
Why it matters: Gross margin affects how much money a company makes. Better margins mean good cost control. Lower margins raise worries about costs.
Watch forGross margin improves to above 40% in the next quarter.
Also watch forGross margin drops below 38% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Positive trends in Private Label can boost overall revenue and market share.
Supportive ifPrivate Label shipment trends show improvement in Q2.
Worry ifPrivate Label shipment trends worsen or remain flat in Q2.
Why it matters: Lower adjusted EBITDA may mean less profit.
Worry ifQ2 adjusted EBITDA is less than $30 million.
Less concerning ifQ2 adjusted EBITDA is more than $30 million.
Why it matters: Management wants to raise gross margins by managing prices and costs. Higher margins show good strategies.
Supportive ifQ3 gross margin is over 40%. This shows good cost management and pricing.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin falls below 38%, suggesting challenges in managing costs and pricing.
Why it matters: The Copra acquisition aims to boost Vita Coco’s market share in coconut water. Strong Q3 revenue growth would show the acquisition is effective.
Supportive ifQ3 net sales grew over 20% from last year. This shows Copra is integrating well.
Worry ifQ3 net sales grew less than 10% from last year. This shows Copra is not working well.
Why it matters: Management wants to boost adjusted EBITDA growth. Strong growth shows good operations and profit.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is over $40 million. This shows strong performance.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is below $30 million. This means there are problems.