NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for COKE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capex near $300 million annually | A supporting condition in Coca-Cola Consolidated's published investment case. The stated target is ~$300 million. | Intact | Capex exceeds $350 million in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $84.242M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$300 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 202684,242,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
Comparable estimate history is unavailable.
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Compare required revenue and earningsMonthly analyst history is unavailable.
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
COKE is a growth-oriented consumer staples business, with a sector backdrop that currently provides a tailwind. Its long-term thesis is intact, though confidence has eased from high to medium and the evidence points to moderate risk.
COKE trades at a premium to peers, and the valuation evidence suggests expectations may be ahead of what fundamentals support. The priced-in signal is tagged as justified, with low fragility, but re-rating is the main driver identified for the valuation gap.
Near-term results have been strong: revenue and volume increased through the reported periods, while operating income improved despite acknowledged cost pressures. Management remains on track with growth priorities and its annual capital spending plan, though a run of recent earnings misses raises some near-term concern.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, while continued weakness in jobs data could raise recession concerns for cyclical businesses. Continued strong results and higher guidance from sector peers such as KO, PEP, and MNST would support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on continued volume and operating growth, disciplined spending, and a supportive sector, weighed against a premium valuation and near-term execution risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Operating income rose 25% to $237.5 million. |
| Broken |
| Operating income growth falls below 10% YoY next year |
Operating income growth: 10.12% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=10% YoY growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 202610.119043 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth at or above 8% annually | A primary condition in Coca-Cola Consolidated's published investment case. The stated target is >=8% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 8% next year | Revenue growth: 5.36% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=8% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 20265.360647 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.