Coca-Cola Consolidated (COKE)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-09-04
$189.33-4.09%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · COKE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -72.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 9.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 82.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
COKE — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2025-12-08
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The disclosure required by this
Why it matters: Keeping CAPEX at this level shows a focus on growth and efficiency.
Supportive ifCAPEX reported at $300 million for 2026.
Worry ifCAPEX reported below $300 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Slower growth in operating income shows trouble with costs. This affects profits.
Worry ifQ3 operating income growth is below 10% compared to Q3 2025.
Less concerning ifOperating income growth is over 10% compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: More spending may mean a change in how management plans or spends money.
Worry ifSpending is over $300 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Less concerning ifSpending is at or below $300 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: Steady volume growth shows strong demand. It also shows good market strategies.
Supportive ifVolume growth in Q3 2026 is over 7.6%. This shows strong consumer demand.
Worry ifVolume growth falls below 7.6% in Q3 2026, suggesting weakening demand.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$134 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $363 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,466 loss on $10,000 · 24.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A big drop in gross margin means higher costs. This would hurt profits.
Worry ifGross margin falls below 35.9% in Q3 2026, worse than the 37.9% in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifGross margin stabilizes or improves to above 37.9% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Slower revenue growth could signal weakening demand or pricing power in a tough market.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: More revenue growth shows that people want Coca-Cola products.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth is over 5% compared to last year. This shows sales are recovering.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth remains below 5% year over year, suggesting ongoing weakness.
Why it matters: Higher aluminum costs may hurt gross margins and profits.
Worry ifAluminum costs rise a lot, hurting gross margins by over $35 million.
Less concerning ifAluminum costs stay the same or drop, helping gross margins.
Why it matters: Higher input costs might hurt margins and lower profits.
Worry ifInput costs reported above $35 million in Q2.
Less concerning ifInput costs reported below $25 million in Q2.
Why it matters: A drop in volume growth would signal weakening demand and impact revenue growth.
Worry ifQ3 volume growth reported below 7% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 volume growth remains at or above 7% year over year.
Why it matters: A stable gross margin means better cost management. This helps with rising input costs.
Supportive ifGross margin stays above 37%. This shows good cost management.
Worry ifGross margin drops below 36%. This shows worsening cost pressures.
Why it matters: Falling below this level may show less demand. This can hurt revenue.
Worry ifQ3 net sales growth reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 net sales growth remains at or above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Going over this limit may change how money is spent. It can affect stability.
Worry ifCapital spending was above $300 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Less concerning ifCapital spending stayed at or below $300 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: A bigger drop in gross margin shows rising costs. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifGross margin declines more than 210 basis points from the previous year.
Less concerning ifGross margin decline is less than or equal to 210 basis points.