Columbia Sportswear (COLM)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$57.72-0.12%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · COLM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -33.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 37.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers
COLM — earnings in line
Dated 2026-07-30
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On July 30, 2026, Columbia Sportswear Company (the "Company") issued a press release reporting its second quarter and first half 2026 financial results, updating its full year 2026 financial outlook, and announcing a quarterly dividend. A copy of the Company's press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this report shall not be treated as filed for purposes of the Securities Exchange…
Why it matters: Revenue growth trends can signal changes in the sector's health. A drop could indicate weakening demand.
Worry ifColumbia's revenue growth is now lower than its usual average.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth is still higher than its usual average.
Why it matters: Earnings above this level show they are making more money. This supports what management said.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 diluted EPS reported above $0.30.
Worry ifQ2 2026 diluted EPS reported below $0.30.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how sales and profits are doing.
Watch forEarnings per share is over $1.00, which shows strong performance.
Also watch forEarnings per share falls below $0.75, indicating weak performance.
Why it matters: A drop below this level would signal ongoing weakness in the U.S. market and impact full-year guidance.
Worry ifQ2 2026 net sales reported below $600 million.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 net sales reported above $610 million.
Why it matters: Keeping this margin range is important for making money. It shows how well management controls costs.
Supportive ifGross margin reported between 52.1% and 52.3% for the full year.
Worry ifGross margin falls below 52.1% for the full year.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial strength. It shows a promise to give value to shareholders.
Supportive ifQuarterly dividend remains at $0.30 per share.
Worry ifDividend is cut or suspended.
Why it matters: This range helps us see the company's profit and how well it runs. It shows how well the company controls costs.
Supportive ifOperating income was between $290 million and $325 million for the full year.
Worry ifOperating income falls below $290 million for the full year.
Why it matters: A clear update will show how management views the business's growth. This can affect investor confidence.
Watch forManagement raises the full year 2026 revenue guidance by more than 5%.
Also watch forManagement lowers the full year 2026 revenue guidance by more than 5%.
Why it matters: Exceeding 1% growth would support management's outlook and show recovery in the U.S. market.
Supportive ifQ2 net sales grew more than 1% from last year. This shows recovery.
Worry ifQ2 net sales growth is below 1% year over year, suggesting ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: A return to growth indicates recovery in the U.S. market, vital for overall sales.
Supportive ifManagement reports U.S. wholesale growth in the second half based on the order book.
Worry ifU.S. wholesale orders continue to decline in the second half.
Why it matters: Stabilizing U.S. sales is crucial for overall growth. It indicates success in the ACCELERATE Growth Strategy.
Supportive ifU.S. net sales show growth or stabilize in the next quarter.
Worry ifU.S. net sales decline further in the next quarter.
Why it matters: This growth would confirm the positive momentum in the U.S. market and validate management's guidance.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 net sales reported at $600 million or higher.
Worry ifQ2 2026 net sales reported below $600 million.
Why it matters: This growth range is important. It shows if the ACCELERATE Growth Strategy is working. It tells us if the company can keep growing despite challenges.
Supportive ifNet sales growth in Q3 is reported between 1% and 3% year over year.
Worry ifNet sales growth in Q3 falls below 1% year over year.
Why it matters: If guidance stays at $3.43 to $3.50 billion, it shows confidence in growth despite challenges.
Supportive ifManagement says Q3 net sales will stay the same at $3.43 to $3.50 billion.
Worry ifManagement cuts Q3 net sales guidance to below $3.43 billion.
Why it matters: If gross margin is over 52.1%, it shows good cost control and pricing.
Supportive ifGross margin reported above 52.1% for Q3 2026.
Worry ifGross margin falls below 52.1% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Stable U.S. sales would show recovery and help Columbia grow.
Supportive ifU.S. net sales show no decline or increase year-over-year in Q3.
Worry ifU.S. net sales decline more than 5% year-over-year in Q3.
Why it matters: Confirming the dividend shows a promise to give money back to shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend payment of $0.30 per share is made on September 3, 2026.
Worry ifThe dividend payment is canceled or delayed.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$129 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $335 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,909 loss on $10,000 · 19.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.