Columbia Sportswear (COLM)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-11-04
$69.12-2.55%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · COLM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -21.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
COLM — dividend update
Dated 2026-10-29
REGULATION FD DISCLOSURE In its October 29, 2026 press release, the Company announced that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.30 per share of common stock to be paid on December 3, 2026 to its shareholders of record on November 19, 2026.
Why it matters: Inventory rose due to delayed Fall goods and early Spring production. A slower build would ease concern about unsold stock.
Watch forInventory growth falls below 11% year over year. Management says delayed Fall goods have shipped.
Also watch forInventory growth stays at or above 11% year over year, or management says shipping delays have grown.
Why it matters: Tariff refunds lifted margins, but factory partner support reduced some of the benefit. The final margin will show how much gain remains.
Watch forFull-year gross margin reaches at least 52.1%, the low end of the outlook.
Also watch forFull-year gross margin falls below 52.1% or management lowers its outlook.
Why it matters: Management named U.S. online sales as a bright spot and a key part of its growth plan. Continued gains would show that the plan is reaching shoppers.
Supportive ifColumbia U.S. online sales grow year over year again in the next reported quarter.
Worry ifColumbia U.S. online sales decline year over year in the next reported quarter.
Why it matters: U.S. sales have been weak, while delayed Fall orders lifted Q3 results. Growth without shipment timing help would be a stronger sign of demand.
Supportive ifSecond-half U.S. wholesale sales grow year over year, with Fall 2026 orders shipping as planned.
Worry ifSecond-half U.S. wholesale sales fall year over year, or Fall 2026 orders remain delayed.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$118 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $302 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,909 loss on $10,000 · 19.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management cited weak U.S. sales and a hard retail setting. A rise in U.S. retail sales would offer a better demand backdrop; a drop would add pressure.
Watch forThe November 17 U.S. retail sales report shows month-over-month growth.
Also watch forThe November 17 U.S. retail sales report shows a month-over-month decline.
Why it matters: The new outlook raised its low end after Q3 sales beat guidance. Meeting it would support the view that recent growth can last.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 net sales reach at least $3.46 billion, within the $3.46 billion to $3.50 billion outlook.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 net sales fall below $3.46 billion, or management cuts the outlook again.