Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Compass, Inc. (COMP)
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$10.04+7.73%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.24 → 0.19 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for COMP yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve free cash flow positive for full year 2026 | Compass aims to make free cash flow positive in 2026. | Improving | cash from operating activities remains negative through FY26 | Cash from operations: $191M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: free cash flow positive in 2026. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026191,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a loss-making, execution-dependent business rather than a proven durable compounder. The multi-year view is on watch: synergy progress is encouraging, but recent financial performance is weak and confidence has eased to medium.
Valuation is expensive versus peers, with a peer premium of 1.0, and the expectations gap is negative. The evidence labels pricing as justified and fragility as low, but does not specify exactly what operating assumptions the market already expects.
Near term, management has delivered $300 million of Year 1 net cost synergies ahead of plan and raised its 2026 realized synergy target to $220 million, supporting progress toward $500 million over three years. Cash flow has improved from negative $157 million in the first quarter to positive $191 million in the second, but full-year positive free cash flow remains a goal, and higher expense guidance points to mixed cost control. Recent earnings were in line after a prior beat, while erratic surprises and a history of a deep miss leave some execution risk.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued synergy delivery and achieving positive free cash flow for 2026. Near-term, lower interest rates could support rate-sensitive real estate names, while a guidance cut or weakness among sector peers could remove support for COMP.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, COMP’s thesis depends on turning cost savings into steadier cash generation; weak performance and elevated risk remain important counterweights. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Wahlers continued, “We generated $191 million in operating cash flow in Q2 and our cash balance increased by $210 million quarter-over-quarter to a healthy $694 million, with no balance on our revolver.” “With $694 million of cash on hand and the positive free cash flow we expect to generate in the second half of the year, we remain committed to redeeming our $500 million 9.75% Notes when they are first callable in Q2 of 2027.”
Control non-GAAP operating expenses to $2.70B-$2.75B in 2026 | A primary condition in Compass, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $2.70B-$2.75B non-GAAP OPEX. | Broken | non-GAAP operating expenses exceed $2.75B in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Reach revenue of $4.0B-$4.2B in Q2 2026 | A primary condition in Compass, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $4.0B-$4.2B revenue. | Intact | Q2 2026 revenue falls below $4.0B | Revenue: $4.306B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $4.0B-$4.2B revenue. Same fiscal period as the stored target. Aug 6, 20264,306,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.78 → $0.19 · observed estimates
$15.19B → $15.28B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.78 | $15,189,990,210 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.78 | $15,189,990,210 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.78 | $15,189,990,210 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.78 | $15,189,990,210 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.78 | $15,189,990,210 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.34 | $15,155,071,758 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.78 | $15,189,986,010 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.34 | $15,155,071,758 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.34 | $15,155,071,758 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.28 | $15,149,897,003 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.28 | $15,149,897,003 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.28 | $15,149,897,003 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.28 | $15,149,897,003 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.28 | $15,149,897,003 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.25 | $15,586,923,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.25 | $15,586,923,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.83 | $15,610,527,190 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.83 | $15,610,527,190 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.83 | $15,610,527,190 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.84 | $15,694,264,710 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.84 | $15,694,264,710 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.25 | $15,586,923,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.25 | $15,586,923,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.25 | $15,586,923,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.25 | $15,586,923,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.25 | $15,586,923,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.25 | $15,586,923,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.26 | $15,662,323,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.26 | $15,662,323,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.26 | $15,662,323,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.26 | $15,662,323,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.26 | $15,662,323,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.26 | $15,662,323,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.26 | $15,662,323,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.26 | $15,662,323,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.26 | $15,662,323,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.26 | $15,662,323,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.26 | $15,662,323,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.26 | $15,662,323,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.26 | $15,662,323,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.26 | $15,662,323,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.26 | $15,662,323,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.26 | $15,662,323,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.26 | $15,662,323,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.26 | $15,662,323,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.26 | $15,662,323,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.26 | $15,662,323,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.26 | $15,662,323,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.26 | $15,662,323,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.26 | $15,662,323,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.26 | $15,662,323,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.26 | $15,662,323,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.26 | $15,662,323,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.26 | $15,662,323,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.26 | $15,662,323,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.26 | $15,662,323,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.26 | $15,662,323,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.26 | $15,662,323,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.26 | $15,656,220,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.26 | $15,656,220,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.26 | $15,656,220,262 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.26 | $15,644,115,462 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.26 | $15,644,115,462 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.26 | $15,644,115,462 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.26 | $15,644,115,462 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.26 | $15,644,115,462 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.26 | $15,644,115,462 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.26 | $15,644,115,462 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.26 | $15,644,115,462 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.24 | $15,483,615,462 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.24 | $15,483,615,462 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.24 | $15,483,615,462 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.24 | $15,483,615,462 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.24 | $15,483,615,462 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.24 | $15,483,615,462 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.24 | $15,483,615,462 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.24 | $15,483,615,462 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.24 | $15,483,615,462 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.24 | $15,483,615,462 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.24 | $15,483,615,462 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.24 | $15,483,615,462 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.22 | $15,405,815,462 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.21 | $15,370,632,227 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.21 | $15,366,711,115 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.21 | $15,366,711,115 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.21 | $15,366,711,115 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.21 | $15,334,347,479 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.21 | $15,334,347,479 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.21 | $15,334,347,479 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.21 | $15,334,347,479 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.21 | $15,334,347,479 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.21 | $15,334,347,479 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.21 | $15,334,347,479 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.21 | $15,334,347,479 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.21 | $15,334,347,479 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.21 | $15,334,347,479 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.21 | $15,334,347,479 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.20 | $15,324,828,885 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.20 | $15,324,828,885 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.19 | $15,279,647,066 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.19 | $15,279,647,066 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.19 | $15,279,647,066 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.19 | $15,279,647,066 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.19 | $15,279,647,066 | 5 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.