Compass, Inc. (COMP)
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$10.04+7.73%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · COMP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -13.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 37.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 51.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers
COMP — director transition
Dated 2026-10-14
Director — Charles E. Phillips, Jr.: The resignation of the Lead Independent Director is a significant governance change, but it was an orderly departure with immediate internal appointments and a qualified external successor, indicating no operational disruption.
Why it matters: Compass brokerage GTV grew 15.9% in Q2, versus 6% for the market. Another gap would show that its market share gains continue.
Supportive ifQ3 pro forma brokerage GTV grows faster year over year than U.S. housing market GTV.
Worry ifQ3 pro forma brokerage GTV growth matches or trails U.S. housing market growth.
Why it matters: Compass plans to redeem $500 million of notes when they first become callable. The payment would test its cash and debt plans.
Watch forCompass redeems the $500 million notes in Q2 2027 while keeping a positive cash balance.
Also watch forCompass does not redeem the notes when first callable, or says it lacks the cash to do so.
Why it matters: Compass raised its cost range to $2.75-$2.80 billion. Costs above that range could weaken its savings progress.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 non-GAAP operating costs exceed $2.80 billion, or Compass raises the top of its range.
Less concerning ifCompass reports full-year costs at or below $2.80 billion and keeps its range unchanged.
Why it matters: Compass raised its 2026 savings goal to $220 million. Meeting it would support its plan to cut costs and debt.
Supportive ifOn the November 5 call, Compass reports at least $220 million in 2026 net cost savings realized or on track.
Worry ifCompass lowers its $220 million 2026 goal or reports less than $200 million realized.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$223 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $542 loss on $10,000 · 5.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,081 loss on $10,000 · 50.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Compass plans to give nearly 50,000 new agents access by September. Reaching them would show the platform is spreading beyond its own brokerage.
Supportive ifCompass confirms nearly 50,000 new agents have platform access, with use across non-Compass brands.
Worry ifCompass reports access for far fewer than 50,000 agents or delays the rollout.
Why it matters: Compass reported negative free cash flow in Q1 and positive free cash flow in Q2. Full-year cash flow will test whether that rebound lasts.
Supportive ifCompass reports positive free cash flow for full-year 2026.
Worry ifCompass reports zero or negative free cash flow for full-year 2026, or drops its positive cash flow goal.