ConocoPhillips (COP)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$134.26-1.08%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · COP
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $134 COP trades at 17× p/e, below its 18× p/e peer median, but our blended $105 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range and quality doesn't explain valuation multiples in this sub-industry, so the peer comparison is a weak guide. Analysts target $130–$189. Note: our $105 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($130–$189). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $151.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $21.97 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $15.22 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $96.94 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$130.00 – $189.00 (median $151.00) · 17 analysts · as of 2026-08-24
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price the business can't be justified by any reasonable horizon of the forecast growth; the price already runs past what the model can underwrite. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $6.45/sh owner earnings.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $87.09 |
| 5.3 |
| 19.21 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $63.25 | 12.3 | 5.16 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $92.96 | 9.8 | 9.51 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $104.18 | 2.0 | 52.17 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $57.10 | 7.4 | 7.76 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $63.55 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $136.50 | 17.6 | 7.76 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $136.67 | 17.9 | 7.66 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $28.85 | 12.3 | 2.35 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $98.48 | 9.8 | 10.07 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $113.84 | 2.0 | 57.01 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 3Y | $83.02 | 7.4 | 11.28 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $198.44 | 17.6 | 11.28 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $17.09 | 12.3 | 1.39 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $104.33 | 9.8 | 10.67 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $120.61 | 2.0 | 60.40 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $106.54 | 7.4 | 14.48 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $254.66 | 17.6 | 14.48 | Analyst | high |