ConocoPhillips (COP)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-05
$135.46-1.08%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · COP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 13.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 28 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
COP — General Counsel transition
Dated 2026-06-23
Senior Vice President, Legal, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary — Kelly B. Rose: Kelly B. Rose is retiring from her roles, and a replacement will be announced later.
Why it matters: The energy sector is still in a shrinking phase, though recent data hints at a change. Positive growth would support a better sector backdrop for COP.
Supportive ifThe sector data show three-year revenue growth above 0%.
Worry ifThe sector data keep three-year revenue growth at or below 0%.
Why it matters: Andy O’Brien and Konnie Haynes-Welsh took their new roles on Sept. 1. The Nov. 5 results are an early test of continuity.
Watch forOn Nov. 5, COP keeps full-year production and capital guidance unchanged at 2.295–2.325 million barrels per day and $12–$12.5 billion.
Also watch forOn Nov. 5, COP cuts full-year production guidance or raises capital spending above $12.5 billion.
Why it matters: The deal would add a 42% stake in a long-life oil project in northern Iraq. A delay or failed close would block this step.
Watch forCOP reports that its 42% Kirkuk joint venture stake has closed by Dec. 31, 2026.
Also watch forCOP reports the deal is delayed past year-end, changed in key terms, or terminated.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$110 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $332 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,286 loss on $10,000 · 22.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.