ConocoPhillips (COP)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$134.26-1.08%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · COP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 27.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
COP — General Counsel transition
Dated 2026-06-23
Senior Vice President, Legal, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary — Kelly B. Rose: Kelly B. Rose is retiring from her roles, and a replacement will be announced later.
Why it matters: If ConocoPhillips meets or exceeds this guidance, it shows they keep production steady.
Supportive ifQ3 production guidance meets or exceeds 2.29 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.
Worry ifQ3 production guidance falls below 2.29 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.
Why it matters: Earnings performance is a direct measure of financial health. A beat would affirm management's guidance and execution.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings per share exceeds $1.78.
Worry ifQ2 earnings per share falls below $1.78.
Why it matters: Updates on the Willow project will show how well ConocoPhillips is advancing its key projects. This affects future production.
Watch forThe Willow project hits key milestones or gets updates on its progress.
Also watch forNo updates or delays reported on the Willow project.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps keep paying shareholders and funding projects.
Supportive ifCash from operations exceeds $7 billion in Q3.
Worry ifCash from operations falls below $7 billion in Q3.
Why it matters: Hitting this target would show strong cash flow. It would also help returns for shareholders.
Supportive ifCash from operations reported at $7 billion or higher.
Worry ifCash from operations was below $7 billion.
Why it matters: Higher capital spending could indicate aggressive growth plans but may strain cash flow. It tests capital discipline.
Worry ifCapital spending is over $12.5 billion for 2026.
Less concerning ifCapital spending stays at or below $12 billion.
Why it matters: The Willow project is key for future production growth. Progress affects investor confidence.
Supportive ifWillow project reaches 75% completion by the next earnings call.
Worry ifWillow project completion stalls or falls below 50%.
Why it matters: A smooth leadership change shows stability. It builds confidence in future plans.
Supportive ifAndy O’Brien is now the CEO. There are no major changes.
Worry ifLeadership change has big problems or delays.
Why it matters: Changes in guidance could show shifts in strategy and financial health.
Watch forCapital spending guidance stays at $12 billion or less.
Also watch forCapital spending is expected to be more than $12.5 billion.
Why it matters: Finishing this acquisition would improve the company's assets and growth chances. It shows plans to expand into new markets.
Supportive ifThe acquisition of a 42% stake in the Kirkuk joint venture will be done by the end of 2026.
Worry ifThe acquisition is delayed beyond year-end 2026.
Why it matters: Updates on production guidance will show if the company can meet its growth goals.
Watch forManagement raises Q2 production guidance. It is now above current levels.
Also watch forManagement lowers Q2 production guidance. It is now below current levels.
Why it matters: Production growth from Lower 48 is key to overall performance and cash flow.
Supportive ifProduction growth from Lower 48 exceeds 2% year over year.
Worry ifProduction growth from Lower 48 is flat or negative year over year.
Why it matters: Regular share buybacks show strong finances. They show a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifShare repurchases total $2 billion or more in Q3.
Worry ifShare repurchases drop below $2 billion in Q3.
Why it matters: Progress on major projects like Willow and LNG is key for future growth and cash flow.
Supportive ifCompletion of major projects on or ahead of schedule.
Worry ifThere are delays or problems with big project schedules.
Why it matters: A smooth change to Andy O'Brien as CEO is important. It helps keep the company on track and keeps investors confident.
Watch forA good market reaction or steady stock performance after the change.
Also watch forA bad market reaction or big stock price drop after the change.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$129 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $304 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,286 loss on $10,000 · 22.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.