Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
Cencora (COR)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$339.68-4.05%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
21.97 → 21.76 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for COR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Share repurchases of $1 billion by end of 2026 | A supporting condition in Cencora's published investment case. The stated target is $1 billion share repurchases. | Intact | Share repurchases fall significantly short of $1 billion by end 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
COR is a healthcare-sector business with a cyclical element, supported by a favorable sector backdrop. Its long-term thesis is intact, with recent financial performance in the top half of its industry, but fragile earnings quality makes execution an important concern.
COR is described as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is modest. The current pricing assessment is considered justified, with low fragility rather than a combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence.
Near term, recent results are strong: revenue rose 5.1% from 2026-Q2 to 2026-Q3, and management raised fiscal 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance. OneOncology integration and share repurchases are also progressing as stated priorities. However, the evidence notes past misses and fragile earnings quality, so a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback.
The multi-year view depends on management continuing to deliver on guidance and integration while maintaining recent financial strength. Near term, weakening jobs data could increase recession concerns for cyclical healthcare names, while continued strong results from sector peers could support sector momentum.
For the next 1 to 3 years, COR’s thesis remains intact, backed by strong recent performance, a favorable sector backdrop, and a peer-relative valuation described as cheap. The main tension is whether execution can remain steady despite fragile earnings quality and economic sensitivity. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “In the quarter, the Company opportunistically repurchased $1 billion of shares, which is the amount that the Company previously expected to complete by the end of calendar 2026.” “As we move into the second half of our fiscal year, we are pleased to have made progress on debt paydown and to be in a position to resume opportunistic share repurchases,” Mr. Mauch continued.”
Adjusted diluted EPS near $17.8 for fiscal 2026 | The company raised its EPS guidance to about $17.8 for fiscal 2026. | Under Pressure | EPS guidance falls below $17.65 for fiscal 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating margin near 12.5% next quarter | Profit margins are expected near 12.5% next quarter. | Broken | Operating margin falls below 11.5% next quarter | Operating margin: 1.32% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~12.5% operating margin. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 5, 20261.321715 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth at or above 7% annually | A primary condition in Cencora's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 7% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$21.97 → $21.76 · observed estimates
$369.71B → $367.10B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $21.97 | $369,706,693,837 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $21.97 | $369,706,693,837 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $21.97 | $369,706,693,837 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $21.97 | $369,706,693,837 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $21.97 | $369,706,693,837 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $21.97 | $369,253,793,837 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $21.97 | $369,253,823,837 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $21.92 | $368,628,283,837 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $21.92 | $368,628,283,837 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $21.92 | $368,628,283,837 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $21.92 | $368,628,283,837 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $21.92 | $368,628,283,837 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $21.80 | $368,564,973,837 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $21.80 | $368,564,973,837 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $21.80 | $368,564,973,837 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $21.80 | $368,564,973,837 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $21.80 | $368,564,973,837 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $21.74 | $367,102,724,044 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $21.74 | $367,102,724,044 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $21.74 | $367,102,724,044 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $21.74 | $367,102,724,044 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $21.75 | $367,102,719,394 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $21.75 | $367,102,719,394 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $21.75 | $367,102,719,394 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $21.75 | $367,102,719,394 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $21.75 | $367,102,719,394 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $21.75 | $367,102,719,394 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $21.75 | $367,102,719,394 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $21.75 | $367,102,719,394 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $21.75 | $367,102,719,394 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $21.75 | $367,102,719,394 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $21.75 | $367,102,719,394 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $21.75 | $367,102,719,394 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $21.76 | $367,102,719,394 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $21.76 | $367,102,719,394 | 3 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.