Campbell's Company (The) (CPB)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$23.43+0.73%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CPB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 19.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -4.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 23.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers
CPB — debt issuance
Dated 2026-10-05
Other Information. On October 1, 2026, The Campbell’s Company (“Campbell’s” or the “Company”) priced an offering of $300,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 8.500% Fixed-to-Fixed Reset Rate Junior Subordinated Notes due April 5, 2057 (the “Notes”). The Notes were offered and sold pursuant to an Underwriting Agreement dated October 1, 2026 (the “Underwriting Agreement”) among Campbell’s and Barclays Capital Inc., BNP Paribas Securities Corp., BofA Securities, Inc., Citigroup Global Markets I…
Why it matters: FY26 organic sales fell 2%, while the staples sector has a tailwind. Better company sales would show Campbell's is gaining strength.
Supportive ifOn December 8, Campbell's reports Q1 FY27 organic sales growth year over year, above its FY27 guide's -2% high end.
Worry ifOn December 8, Q1 FY27 organic sales fall more than 4% year over year, below the guide's -4% low end.
Why it matters: Campbell's reported $225 million in savings and set a $500 million goal by FY30. Higher savings can help offset inflation and tariffs.
Supportive ifCampbell's reports more than $225 million in total savings at its next results, with new savings actions tied to the $500 million FY30 goal.
Worry ifCampbell's reports no increase from $225 million in total savings, or delays the FY30 goal or planned plant closures.
Why it matters: Campbell's expects another sales decline in FY27. A smaller drop would show demand is improving.
Supportive ifAt the December 8, 2026 results, FY27 organic sales are above the -2% low end of guidance. Or Q1 organic sales grow year over year.
Worry ifCampbell's cuts its FY27 organic sales guide below -4%, or Q1 organic sales fall more than 4% year over year.
Why it matters: Snacks sales fell 12% in Q4, and its operating earnings fell 34%. A smaller sales drop would show the recovery is taking hold.
Supportive ifThe next reported Snacks organic sales decline is less than 6%, improving on the 6% drop in the prior quarter and 12% in Q4.
Worry ifSnacks organic sales fall 12% or more again, or segment operating earnings fall more than 34% from a year earlier.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$152 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $353 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,835 loss on $10,000 · 38.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Costs and tariffs squeezed margins in FY26. Better EBIT would show savings and plant changes are helping offset those costs.
Supportive ifAt the December 8 results, FY27 adjusted EBIT is above the -7% low end of the guided drop. Or Q1 adjusted EBIT grows year over year.
Worry ifCampbell's cuts its FY27 adjusted EBIT guide below a 12% decline, or Q1 adjusted EBIT falls more than 12% year over year.
Why it matters: Campbell's cut its dividend to speed debt reduction, then priced $300 million in long-term notes. Lower debt would support that plan.
Watch forAt the next results, reported debt is below its FY26 year-end level. Campbell's links the drop to cash saved from the lower dividend.
Also watch forReported debt stays the same or rises, with no stated link between debt reduction and the lower dividend.