Campbell's Company (The) (CPB)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$21.38-3.39%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CPB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -10.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -4.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 28 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CPB — earnings miss
Dated 2026-09-03
and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: Falling revenue shows problems in reaching steady growth. This may affect investor trust.
Worry ifQ3 revenue falls year over year worse than -8%.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue stabilizes or grows year over year.
Why it matters: A lower EBIT margin shows pressure on profits. It also shows issues with efficiency.
Worry ifQ4 2026 EBIT margin falls below 10%.
Less concerning ifQ4 2026 EBIT margin remains above 10%.
Why it matters: If guidance is reaffirmed, it may indicate confidence in future performance. A change could signal deeper issues.
Watch forManagement confirms guidance for the full year of fiscal 2026.
Also watch forManagement lowers guidance for the full year of fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Better sector growth could mean a recovery. This would help Campbell's growth outlook.
Supportive ifConsumer Staples sector revenue growth is above 5% year over year.
Worry ifConsumer Staples sector revenue growth is below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows good cost management and helps future growth.
Supportive ifManagement says total cost savings are over $500 million by fiscal 2030.
Worry ifManagement says total cost savings are below $500 million by fiscal 2030.
Why it matters: Successful new products in Snacks could signal a turnaround in this struggling segment.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of successful new product launches in the Snacks segment.
Worry ifNo new product launches or poor performance of existing products in the Snacks segment.
Why it matters: Exceeding $200 million in cost savings would show effective management of inflation and supply chain costs. This could improve margins.
Supportive ifTotal cost savings are over $200 million.
Worry ifCost savings remain below $200 million.
Why it matters: A bigger drop would show worse demand and problems with growth plans.
Worry ifQ3 organic net sales decline worse than -4%.
Less concerning ifQ3 organic net sales decline better than -4%.
Why it matters: Hitting this target would help reduce inflation effects and boost profits.
Supportive ifTotal cost savings achieved reaches $375 million by fiscal 2028.
Worry ifTotal cost savings so far is under $200 million.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, it means worse profits and cost issues.
Worry ifAdjusted EBIT falls below $274 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBIT remains at or above $274 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Progress in cost savings is crucial to offset inflation and improve margins.
Watch forManagement says they saved $375 million or more.
Also watch forManagement says cost savings are less than $200 million.
Why it matters: Improvement in Snacks shows management is acting well. This could help recovery in this area.
Supportive ifSnacks segment shows positive organic sales growth in Q3.
Worry ifSnacks segment continues to decline in organic sales in Q3.
Why it matters: New investments could stabilize the Snacks segment and improve sales.
Watch forThere are new trade investments in the Snacks business.
Also watch forNo new investments were announced, showing ongoing problems in the Snacks segment.
Why it matters: Lower EPS guidance shows ongoing problems with profits and growth for Campbell's.
Worry ifManagement lowered EPS guidance to below $1.65 for Q1 2027.
Less concerning ifManagement kept or raised EPS guidance above $1.65 for Q1 2027.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can change company plans. They can also impact how investors feel.
Worry ifNew leadership appointments that align with strategic goals.
Less concerning ifMore exits or problems in leadership roles.
Why it matters: A bigger drop shows big problems in the Snacks business. It also shows management's struggle to fix it.
Worry ifSnacks segment sales decline worse than 6% in Q4 2026.
Less concerning ifSnacks segment sales decline less than 6% in Q4 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$133 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $353 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,856 loss on $10,000 · 38.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.