Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Chesapeake Utilities Corp. (CPK)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-11-04
$141.69-0.01%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.37 → 7.33 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CPK yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital spending $450M to $500M annually | The company invests $450M to $500M in capital spending yearly. | Broken | CAPEX falls below $450M or exceeds $500M significantly in 2026 | Capital expenditures: $125M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $450M to $500M CAPEX per year. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026125,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CPK is a regulated utility with growth tied in part to natural gas infrastructure investment. Its long-term thesis is intact, with major priorities on track, though confidence has eased from high to medium. Near-term risk is moderate, and recent earnings misses are a concern despite a low estimated miss risk.
The valuation evidence is mixed: CPK is described as expensive overall, while the model also shows it as cheap versus peers. The expectations gap is modest, and the priced-in assessment says the valuation is justified with low fragility. This suggests limited evidence that expectations are unusually stretched, though the conflicting valuation signals call for caution.
Management has raised 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $550-$600 million and is progressing the Florida Energy Pathway pipeline toward a targeted 2030 start. It has reaffirmed 2028 adjusted EPS guidance of $7.75 to $8.00 per share, while recent financial performance is assessed as neutral and earnings misses have continued. A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful near-term negative.
The multi-year view depends on continued delivery against capital plans and the reaffirmed earnings outlook, including progress on the Florida pipeline. Near term, the key swing factors are whether guidance remains intact, whether interest rates begin to fall, and whether peer utilities continue to report strong results and raise guidance.
Over the next one to three years, CPK’s thesis has support from on-track projects and reaffirmed guidance, but execution and the mixed valuation picture remain central. Recent earnings misses and reduced confidence make the evidence moderate rather than strong. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Chesapeake Utilities Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $7.75 EPS by 2028. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $7.75 by 2028 |
Diluted EPS: $1.05 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $7.75 EPS by 2028. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20261.05 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Company also continues to reaffirm its 2028 earnings guidance of $7.75 - $8.00 per share.” “The Company also continues to re-affirm its five-year (2024-2028) capital guidance range of $1.5 billion to $1.8 billion and 2028 EPS guidance range of $7.75 to $8.00 per share.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue grows at least 5.5% per year | A primary condition in Chesapeake Utilities Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= 5.5% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 5.5% next year | Revenue growth: 4.72% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 5.5% YoY revenue growth. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Aug 6, 20264.719917 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Company also continues to reaffirm its 2028 earnings guidance of $7.75 - $8.00 per share.” “The Company also continues to re-affirm its five-year (2024-2028) capital guidance range of $1.5 billion to $1.8 billion and 2028 EPS guidance range of $7.75 to $8.00 per share.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.32 → $7.33 · observed estimates
$1.07B → $1.08B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.32 | $1,072,397,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.32 | $1,072,397,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.33 | $1,070,446,655 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.32 | $1,072,397,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.32 | $1,072,397,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $7.34 | $1,070,446,831 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.34 | $1,070,446,831 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $7.32 | $1,072,397,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.34 | $1,070,446,831 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.32 | $1,072,397,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.32 | $1,072,397,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.32 | $1,072,397,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.34 | $1,070,446,831 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.34 | $1,070,446,831 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $7.34 | $1,070,446,831 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.32 | $1,069,197,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.32 | $1,069,197,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.34 | $1,070,446,831 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $7.34 | $1,070,446,831 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $7.34 | $1,070,446,831 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.33 | $1,072,416,600 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.34 | $1,070,446,831 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.34 | $1,070,446,831 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.34 | $1,070,446,831 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.34 | $1,070,446,831 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.34 | $1,070,446,831 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.34 | $1,070,446,831 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $7.34 | $1,070,470,750 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $7.34 | $1,070,470,750 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $7.34 | $1,070,470,750 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $7.34 | $1,070,470,750 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $7.34 | $1,070,470,750 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $7.34 | $1,070,470,750 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $7.34 | $1,070,470,750 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $7.34 | $1,070,470,750 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $7.34 | $1,070,470,750 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $7.34 | $1,070,470,750 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $7.34 | $1,070,470,750 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $7.34 | $1,070,470,750 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $7.34 | $1,070,470,750 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $7.34 | $1,070,470,750 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $7.34 | $1,070,470,750 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $7.34 | $1,070,470,750 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $7.34 | $1,070,470,750 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $7.34 | $1,070,470,750 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $7.34 | $1,070,470,750 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $7.34 | $1,070,470,750 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $7.34 | $1,070,470,750 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $7.34 | $1,070,470,750 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $7.34 | $1,070,470,750 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $7.35 | $1,064,956,600 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $7.35 | $1,064,956,600 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $7.35 | $1,064,956,600 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $7.35 | $1,064,956,600 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $7.35 | $1,064,956,600 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $7.34 | $1,069,140,167 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $7.34 | $1,069,140,167 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $7.34 | $1,069,140,167 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $7.34 | $1,069,140,167 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $7.34 | $1,069,140,167 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $7.34 | $1,069,140,167 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $7.34 | $1,069,140,167 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $7.34 | $1,069,140,167 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $7.34 | $1,069,140,167 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $7.34 | $1,069,140,167 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $7.34 | $1,069,140,167 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $7.34 | $1,069,140,167 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $7.34 | $1,069,140,167 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $7.34 | $1,069,140,167 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $7.37 | $1,075,580,667 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $7.37 | $1,075,580,667 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $7.37 | $1,075,580,667 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.37 | $1,075,580,667 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.37 | $1,075,580,667 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.37 | $1,075,580,667 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.37 | $1,075,580,667 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.37 | $1,075,580,667 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $7.36 | $1,076,764,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.36 | $1,076,764,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.36 | $1,076,764,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.36 | $1,076,764,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $7.36 | $1,076,764,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $7.36 | $1,076,764,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.36 | $1,076,764,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $7.36 | $1,076,764,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $7.36 | $1,076,764,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $7.36 | $1,079,597,333 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.36 | $1,079,597,333 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.36 | $1,079,597,333 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $7.33 | $1,079,597,333 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $7.33 | $1,079,596,900 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $7.33 | $1,079,596,900 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $7.33 | $1,079,596,900 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $7.33 | $1,079,596,900 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $7.33 | $1,079,596,900 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $7.33 | $1,079,596,900 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $7.33 | $1,079,596,900 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $7.33 | $1,079,596,900 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $7.33 | $1,079,596,900 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $7.33 | $1,079,596,900 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $7.33 | $1,079,596,900 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $7.33 | $1,079,596,900 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $7.33 | $1,079,596,900 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $7.33 | $1,079,596,900 | 3 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.