Chesapeake Utilities Corp. (CPK)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-09-04
$132.66+0.32%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CPK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 16.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CPK — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-09-01
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth above in
Why it matters: The CAPEX guidance shows the company plans to grow. It wants to invest in infrastructure.
Supportive ifThe company plans to spend between $450 million and $500 million in 2026.
Worry ifThe company plans to spend less than $450 million in 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company can maintain its growth trajectory. A miss could signal deeper issues.
Worry ifQ3 earnings show adjusted EPS growth of at least 8% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 earnings show adjusted EPS growth below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: This project will invest $1.2 billion to increase natural gas capacity in Florida. Progress shows it can grow in the future.
Supportive ifThere are new binding commitments from more shippers for firm transportation service.
Worry ifThere are delays in project development or not enough new shipper commitments.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect company plans and actions. Smooth changes are key for stability.
Watch forThe new CFO is successfully joining the leadership team without issues.
Also watch forThere are reported problems or delays in the leadership change.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$75 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $222 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,353 loss on $10,000 · 13.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The transition to a new CFO could affect financial strategy and execution. It is crucial for future growth.
Watch forJeff Sylvester uses new financial strategies and keeps or boosts EPS growth.
Also watch forLeadership changes cause problems or lower EPS growth.
Why it matters: The outcome of the rate case will impact revenue and margins for Chesapeake Utilities.
Supportive ifApproval of the rate base increase by the Florida Public Service Commission.
Worry ifDenial of the rate base increase request by the Florida Public Service Commission.
Why it matters: Reaffirming EPS guidance shows the company believes in its long-term growth.
Supportive ifThe company confirms its 2028 EPS guidance range of $7.75 to $8.00 per share.
Worry ifThe company revises down its 2028 EPS guidance below $7.75 per share.
Why it matters: Meeting the spending plans shows a focus on growth and improving infrastructure.
Supportive ifSpending is expected to be between $450 million and $500 million for 2026.
Worry ifSpending is expected to be below $450 million for 2026.
Why it matters: These rates can affect revenue and earnings. They are crucial for the ongoing Florida City Gas rate case.
Supportive ifInterim rates bring in $16.2 million each year as expected.
Worry ifInterim rates do not bring in the expected revenue. They may face regulatory issues.
Why it matters: Changes in spending plans will show how much Chesapeake Utilities is investing in growth.
Watch forAn increase in spending plans above $600 million is expected.
Also watch forA decrease in spending plans below $550 million is a concern.
Why it matters: More spending helps growth and builds better infrastructure. It shows management cares about investment.
Supportive ifManagement raises spending plans to over $600 million for 2026.
Worry ifManagement lowers spending plans to below $550 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Updates on the new CFO's work will show if the change affects company plans.
Watch forLook for positive results reported under the new CFO, Jeff Sylvester.
Also watch forBad results or issues after the leadership change are worrying.
Why it matters: Financing details will show how Chesapeake Utilities plans to fund its $1.2 billion project. This affects growth potential.
Supportive ifLook for news about financing partnerships covering at least 49% of the project cost.
Worry ifWatch for no financing updates or delays in finding partners for the project.
Why it matters: Strong growth in adjusted gross margin shows good use of capital and high customer demand.
Supportive ifIn Q2, the adjusted gross margin was over $206 million.
Worry ifIn Q2, the adjusted gross margin was under $200 million.