Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Crescent Energy Company (CRGY)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-05
$11.14-5.03%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.19 → 2.84 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CRGY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital allocation supports growth without excessive risk | A supporting condition in Crescent Energy Company's published investment case. The stated target is Capital allocation progress score improves above 50%. | Intact | Capital allocation progress score remains below 30% | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an energy-sector growth and execution story, with a cyclical backdrop rather than a low-risk compounder profile. The long-term thesis is intact, supported by recent operating strength, though the evidence snapshot rates earnings quality as loss-making and management as volatile.
The valuation evidence labels expectations as justified, with low fragility rather than a full combination of expensive valuation, weak fundamentals, and turbulent conditions. The expectations gap is negative, but the snapshot does not explain its scale in plain terms, so how much optimism is already reflected remains unclear.
Near-term results show strong momentum: revenue and levered free cash flow rose from the first to the second quarter, and production guidance was raised. Cost measures improved, though operating expense efficiency is marked behind; the recent earnings beats support the thesis, while a reversal of raised guidance would damage management credibility.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis hinges on sustaining production growth, cash generation, and progress on operating costs without reversing guidance. The sector tailwind depends partly on whether COP, EOG, and OXY continue to report strong results and guide higher, or instead miss and guide lower.
CRGY’s operating progress and recent earnings beats support an intact multi-year thesis, but loss-making earnings quality, elevated risk, and volatile management make continued execution essential. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company targets free cash flow of $192 million in 2026 and raised capital spending to support growth. |
| Intact |
| Free cash flow falls below $150 million in FY26 |
Free cash flow: $685.902M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $192 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 3, 2026685,902,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income improves toward profitability | Operating income improved from a loss to $327 million in the same period. | Improving | Operating income falls below $200 million in FY26 | Operating income: $478.689M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $300 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 2, 2026478,689,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows at least 15% year over year | Crescent Energy grew revenue 24% year over year to $1.18 billion in Q1 2026. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 15% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 55.92% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=15% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 2, 202655.924849 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.28 → $2.84 · observed estimates
$4.71B → $6.14B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.28 | $4,708,759,150 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.21 | $4,601,896,390 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.21 | $4,601,896,390 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.21 | $4,601,896,390 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.21 | $4,601,896,390 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.26 | $4,600,862,790 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.26 | $4,600,862,790 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.14 | $4,569,370,803 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.14 | $4,569,370,803 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.26 | $4,600,862,790 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.26 | $4,600,862,790 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.28 | $4,612,304,640 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.13 | $4,567,470,166 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.24 | $4,597,876,070 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.13 | $4,547,742,893 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.21 | $4,593,578,140 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.21 | $4,593,578,140 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.21 | $4,593,578,140 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.13 | $4,547,742,893 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.27 | $4,593,578,140 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.13 | $4,547,742,893 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.13 | $4,547,742,893 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.13 | $4,547,742,893 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.13 | $4,547,742,893 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.13 | $4,547,742,893 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.13 | $4,547,742,893 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.13 | $4,547,742,893 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.03 | $4,534,170,960 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.03 | $4,534,170,960 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.03 | $4,534,170,960 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.03 | $4,534,170,960 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.03 | $4,534,170,960 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.03 | $4,534,170,960 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.02 | $4,527,716,415 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.02 | $4,527,716,415 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.02 | $4,527,716,415 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.02 | $4,527,716,415 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.02 | $4,527,716,415 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.02 | $4,527,716,415 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.02 | $4,527,716,415 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.02 | $4,527,716,415 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.02 | $4,527,716,415 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.04 | $4,525,748,380 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.04 | $4,525,748,380 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.04 | $4,525,748,380 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.04 | $4,525,748,380 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.05 | $4,525,748,380 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.05 | $4,525,748,380 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.05 | $4,525,748,380 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.06 | $4,534,348,297 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.06 | $4,534,348,297 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.10 | $4,565,931,630 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.10 | $4,565,931,630 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.13 | $4,565,931,630 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.15 | $4,578,627,335 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.15 | $4,578,627,335 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.15 | $4,578,627,335 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.17 | $4,578,627,335 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.17 | $4,576,710,668 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.17 | $4,576,710,668 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.17 | $4,576,710,668 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.17 | $4,576,710,668 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.18 | $4,576,710,668 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.18 | $4,576,710,668 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.18 | $4,576,710,668 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.18 | $4,576,710,668 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.18 | $4,576,710,668 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.18 | $4,577,777,335 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.18 | $4,577,777,335 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.18 | $4,577,777,335 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.18 | $4,577,777,335 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.19 | $4,584,121,860 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.19 | $4,584,121,860 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.19 | $4,584,121,860 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.19 | $4,584,121,860 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.21 | $4,605,371,860 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.21 | $4,605,371,860 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.22 | $4,605,371,860 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.25 | $4,580,480,891 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.32 | $4,580,480,891 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.32 | $4,580,480,891 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.38 | $4,595,106,857 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.40 | $4,601,791,333 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.46 | $6,027,534,263 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.49 | $6,054,284,263 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.49 | $6,054,284,263 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.48 | $6,109,542,111 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.48 | $6,109,542,111 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.50 | $6,109,542,111 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.49 | $6,109,442,111 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.50 | $6,105,904,470 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.56 | $6,110,549,518 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.65 | $6,113,078,725 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.65 | $6,113,078,725 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.65 | $6,113,078,725 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.65 | $6,113,078,725 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.75 | $6,113,042,361 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.75 | $6,113,042,361 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.75 | $6,113,042,361 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.77 | $6,119,375,694 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.77 | $6,119,375,692 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.77 | $6,119,375,692 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.76 | $6,122,792,358 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.84 | $6,142,485,779 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-11-05 | $2.84 | $6,142,485,779 | 8 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.