Crescent Energy Company (CRGY)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$13.77-1.36%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CRGY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -31.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 34.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CRGY — credit agreement
Dated 2026-05-22
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 18, 2026, Crescent Energy Finance LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“Crescent Finance”) and a wholly owned subsidiary of Crescent Energy Company (NYSE: CRGY) (“Crescent”), entered into that certain Fifteenth Amendment to Credit Agreement (the “Credit Agreement Amendment”), which amended Crescent’s existing Credit Agreement, dated as of May 6, 2021 (as amended by the First Amendment to Credit Agreement, dated as of September 24, 2021,…
Why it matters: Crescent Energy has higher operating income. This means they are keeping costs low.
Supportive ifOperating income increases by at least 20% year over year in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income does not improve or declines year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: Steady cash flow is important for Crescent to invest and return money to shareholders. It shows efficiency.
Supportive ifQ2 operating cash flow was over $400 million.
Worry ifQ2 operating cash flow was below $350 million.
Why it matters: Lower operating costs mean better efficiency. This helps profit margins.
Supportive ifOperating expenses are below $11.00/Boe for Q3.
Worry ifOperating expenses are above $11.50/Boe for Q3.
Why it matters: Sector growth affects Crescent's performance. If sector growth picks up, it helps Crescent too.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth reported above 6% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below 6% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$190 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $572 loss on $10,000 · 5.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,434 loss on $10,000 · 34.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Finishing this would help cash flow and support investment plans.
Supportive ifThe company says it has settled the $600 million convertible notes.
Worry ifThe offering does not close or is cut back a lot.
Why it matters: Higher spending may mean plans for growth or some challenges.
Watch forQ2 capital spending is over $385 million. This suggests a focus on growth.
Also watch forQ2 capital spending is below $385 million. This shows a cautious approach.
Why it matters: A steady dividend shows financial health. It shows commitment to returning money to shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend set at $0.12 per share. This confirms ongoing returns to shareholders.
Worry ifNo dividend or a cut in the dividend shows financial trouble.
Why it matters: Continued revenue growth signals that Crescent Energy is on track with its growth plans.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 15% year over year, continuing the trend from Q1.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 10% year over year, indicating a slowdown.
Why it matters: More synergies mean better integration. This leads to greater efficiency.
Supportive ifManagement raises the Permian synergy goal to more than $300 million.
Worry ifManagement lowers the Permian synergy goal to less than $250 million.
Why it matters: The notes might dilute shares. This can affect investor feelings and stock price.
Worry ifMarket price remains below the cap price of $22.48, limiting dilution.
Less concerning ifMarket price exceeds the cap price of $22.48, leading to potential dilution.
Why it matters: Changes in production guidance will show if the company can keep growing.
Supportive ifManagement increases Q3 production guidance to more than 335 MBoe/d.
Worry ifManagement decreases Q3 production guidance to less than 320 MBoe/d.
Why it matters: Production levels are key to revenue growth. A drop signals operational issues.
Worry ifQ3 production averages below 335 MBoe/d. This shows a drop from recent levels.
Less concerning ifQ3 production meets or exceeds 335 MBoe/d, showing operational strength.
Why it matters: Oil prices affect revenue directly. Big changes can impact financial results.
Worry ifAverage realized oil prices fall below $63.75 per barrel.
Less concerning ifAverage realized oil prices rise above $71.00 per barrel.
Why it matters: Lower operating expenses can increase profit margins. This shows Crescent's good cost control.
Supportive ifOperating expense per Boe drops below $13.00.
Worry ifOperating expense per Boe goes above $14.00.
Why it matters: News about the repurchase program shows how much management trusts the stock.
Supportive ifCrescent announces an increase in the share repurchase program budget.
Worry ifCrescent reduces or suspends the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: Sector performance can greatly impact Crescent's growth and profits.
Watch forSector revenue growth is speeding up above 10%. This shows a positive change.
Also watch forSector revenue growth continues to decline or remains flat.
Why it matters: Updates on capital allocation will show if Crescent is managing its funds better. This impacts growth.
Watch forManagement shares a clear plan to spend money better.
Also watch forNo news or a plan that shows bad money management.
Why it matters: A steady dividend shows financial health. It also shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifBoard declares a dividend of $0.12 per share for Q3.
Worry ifBoard suspends or reduces the dividend for Q3.