Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$7.01 → $7.01 · observed estimates
CRH plc (CRH)
NYSEMaterialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$95.45-3.39%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CRH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Invest $0.9 billion in value-accretive acquisitions in Q1 | The company keeps strong cash flow and invests $0.9 billion in acquisitions in Q1. | Intact | Acquisition investment falls below $0.9 billion in Q1 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$7.01 → $7.01 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CRH is a materials company with a multi-year growth thesis built around acquisitions and operating improvements. The thesis is intact, though recent results show that revenue growth has not yet translated into higher Adjusted EBITDA, a measure of operating earnings before certain costs.
The available valuation evidence describes CRH as cheap versus peers, with a negative expectations gap, meaning market expectations are below the model’s estimate. Pricing is tagged as justified, and fragility is low, so the evidence does not point to a valuation setup that depends on highly optimistic assumptions.
In the near term, revenue rose year over year and CRH completed the Arcosa acquisition, but net income fell, Adjusted EBITDA was flat, and the margin declined. The Velocity program has begun, but its expected annual benefits are future goals; recent guidance was lowered, making execution and guidance changes important to watch.
A favorable case depends on CRH restoring guidance and on materials-sector peers continuing to report strong results and raise their outlooks. If those peers miss or lower guidance, the sector tailwind could fade; delivery of acquisition growth and operating improvements also remains important over the multi-year view.
For the next 1 to 3 years, CRH’s thesis rests on strong recent performance, acquisitions, and a supportive sector backdrop, balanced against weaker margins and uncertain execution. The evidence is mixed, with medium confidence and guidance and peer results as key signals. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in CRH plc's published investment case. The stated target is >=5.96 USD per share. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below $5.6 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $1.86 per share FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=5.96 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 20261.86 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net debt below $16 billion | A supporting condition in CRH plc's published investment case. The stated target is <=16 USD billion. | Under Pressure | Net debt rises above $16 billion | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth at or above 6.7% YoY | A primary condition in CRH plc's published investment case. The stated target is >=6.7% YoY. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 6.7% next year | Revenue growth: 21.03% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=6.7% YoY. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Oct 29, 202621.028037 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$45.06B → $45.06B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | $7.01 | $45,060,928,915 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-11-05 | $7.01 | $45,060,928,915 | 9 / 12 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 22 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 8 recorded
1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.