CRH plc (CRH)
NYSEMaterialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$94.26+2.41%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CRH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -8.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CRH — credit agreement
Dated 2026-07-17
Other Events. As previously announced in CRH public limited company’s (‘CRH’) Current Report on Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on June 22, 2026, CRH Americas, Inc. (‘Parent’), a Delaware corporation and indirect wholly owned subsidiary of CRH, Neon Merger Sub, Inc., a Delaware corporation and wholly owned subsidiary of Parent (‘Merger Sub’), and Arcosa, Inc., a Delaware corporation (‘Arcosa’), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the ‘Merger Agreement’), p…
Why it matters: Approval is key for CRH to complete the $8.5B acquisition of Arcosa. This deal strengthens CRH's position in U.S. aggregates.
Supportive ifArcosa stockholders vote yes on the merger agreement.
Worry ifArcosa stockholders vote no on the merger agreement.
Why it matters: Closing this deal would strengthen CRH's position in the water infrastructure market.
Supportive ifThe acquisition of Axius Water closes successfully by the end of Q2 2026.
Worry ifThe acquisition fails to close or is delayed beyond Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Stable net debt will show good financial management during the merger.
Supportive ifCRH reports net debt remaining at or below $15.8 billion after the merger closes.
Worry ifCRH's net debt rises sharply above $15.8 billion after the merger.
Why it matters: Better margins show good cost management. This is key for CRH's profits.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA margin is over 24.4%. This shows continued margin growth.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA margin is below 24.0%. This suggests margin pressure.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$160 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $351 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,033 loss on $10,000 · 30.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Big changes in debt can impact financial stability and future growth plans.
Worry ifTotal debt increases by more than $1 billion due to acquisitions.
Less concerning ifTotal debt remains stable or decreases.
Why it matters: Management believes in growth. They restated their goals even with challenges ahead.
Supportive ifCRH reaffirms its 2026 guidance during the next earnings call on August 5, 2026.
Worry ifCRH revises its 2026 guidance downwards during the earnings call.
Why it matters: Stable or lower debt levels show good cash management and financial health.
Supportive ifTotal debt remains at or below $18.5 billion in Q2 2026.
Worry ifTotal debt increases above $19 billion in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping this margin shows good cost management. It also shows strong operations.
Supportive ifNet income margin remains above 14% in Q3.
Worry ifNet income margin falls below 14% in Q3.
Why it matters: Reaffirming guidance shows they are confident in their financial results. This is true even with market problems.
Supportive ifManagement reaffirms FY 2026 net income guidance of $3.9bn to $4.1bn.
Worry ifManagement cuts the FY 2026 net income guidance.
Why it matters: Changes in net debt will indicate CRH's financial health and ability to invest in growth.
Watch forNet debt goes down or stays the same after purchases. This shows strong cash flow.
Also watch forNet debt rises above $15.8 billion. This shows financial trouble.
Why it matters: A big increase in net debt may show financial stress. This could affect future investments.
Worry ifNet debt exceeds $16 billion in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifNet debt remains below $15.8 billion in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Negative revenue growth would signal a shift in demand trends and impact future guidance.
Worry ifQ2 2026 total revenues decline year over year by more than 2%.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 total revenues grow year over year or remain stable.
Why it matters: Closing the Arcosa deal would strengthen CRH's position in the North American infrastructure market. It is a key part of CRH's growth strategy.
Supportive ifThe deal will close by Q1 2027 after getting all approvals.
Worry ifThe deal may be delayed or fail due to regulatory or stockholder problems.
Why it matters: Stabilizing or falling revenue shows problems with growth. This is important right now.
Worry ifQ3 total revenues show year-over-year growth of less than 5%.
Less concerning ifQ3 total revenues grow year-over-year by more than 5%.
Why it matters: Finding cost savings will support CRH's plan and improve profits after the deal.
Supportive ifManagement says they will save at least $175 million in costs in the first year.
Worry ifCost synergies fall short of expectations or are not realized within the first year.