Carter's, Inc. (CRI)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$33.55+1.21%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CRI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -31.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 6.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 38.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers
CRI — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-20
Regulation FD Disclosure. On August 20, 2026, the Company announced, in a press release, the declaration of a quarterly cash dividend to the Company’s stockholders. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in
Why it matters: This metric helps us see how much consumers want and how the company is doing.
Watch forU.S. Retail comparable sales growth reported above 5% for Q3.
Also watch forU.S. Retail comparable sales growth reported below 3% for Q3.
Why it matters: This shows ongoing problems with costs and making money.
Worry ifOperating income was below $11 million for Q2.
Less concerning ifOperating income was above $11 million for Q2.
Why it matters: The new CEO's approach may change company priorities and performance outlook.
Watch forThe new CEO announces a clear strategy that aligns with revenue growth.
Also watch forThe new CEO does not share a clear plan, which creates uncertainty.
Why it matters: Her leadership will help drive growth at Carter's. It will also improve profits.
Supportive ifLook for positive sales growth in the next quarterly earnings after her start.
Worry ifSales growth declines or remains flat in the next quarterly earnings report.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$173 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $423 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,736 loss on $10,000 · 27.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Changes in dividend payments show how much management trusts future earnings and cash flow.
Watch forThe Board declares a dividend increase or maintains the current dividend of $0.25.
Also watch forThe Board cuts the dividend payment or suspends it.
Why it matters: This would indicate a slowdown in sales growth and could impact future forecasts.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth was below 2%. This shows a big slowdown.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth was above 3%. This shows ongoing momentum.
Why it matters: Improving sector growth could boost Carter's revenue. This is important for overall performance.
Supportive ifConsumer sector revenue growth rises above 5% year over year.
Worry ifConsumer sector revenue growth remains below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: A decline shows problems in managing costs and profits during inflation.
Worry ifAdjusted operating income drops more than 5% from Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifAdjusted operating income stays the same or increases from Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Growth above this level shows good cost control and efficient operations.
Supportive ifOperating income growth is above 10% compared to last year.
Worry ifOperating income growth is below 10% compared to last year.
Why it matters: This would indicate a slowdown in revenue growth, which is crucial for the company’s outlook.
Worry ifQ3 net sales growth reported below 2% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 net sales growth reported above 2% year over year.
Why it matters: A decline means challenges in managing costs and making money.
Worry ifAdjusted operating income was below $176 million. This shows a decline.
Less concerning ifOperating income was over $180 million. This shows good cost control.
Why it matters: Higher costs may hurt overall profits and investor trust.
Worry ifLeadership transition costs in Q3 are reported at $3 million or lower.
Less concerning ifLeadership transition costs in Q3 exceed $3 million.
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend policy can affect how investors feel. It can also change how money is spent.
Watch forThe company will raise the cash dividend paid every quarter.
Also watch forCompany cuts or suspends the quarterly cash dividend.
Why it matters: Sharon Price John's plans could drive growth and improve profitability at Carter's.
Supportive ifCEO Sharon Price John will announce new plans soon.
Worry ifNo announcement or vague statements about future plans from the new CEO.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if revenue growth is improving. This is key for future plans.
Watch forQ2 earnings report shows revenue growth above 4% year over year.
Also watch forQ2 earnings report shows revenue growth below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: A rise in adjusted operating income shows better cost control and more profit.
Supportive ifAdjusted operating income rises to at least $11 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating income is under $10 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Stable dividends show financial health. They also show a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifQuarterly dividend remains at $0.25 per share for the next declaration.
Worry ifDividend is cut or suspended in the next declaration.
Why it matters: A smaller drop in earnings per share shows better cost management. It shows the company can handle challenges.
Supportive ifAdjusted diluted EPS reported to decline less than 10% compared to Q2 last year.
Worry ifAdjusted diluted EPS reported to decline more than 15% compared to Q2 last year.