Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Comstock Resources, Inc. (CRK)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-05
$13.32-0.45%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.54 → 0.40 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CRK yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capex of $1.4B to $1.5B in 2026 | A primary condition in Comstock Resources, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is between $1.4B and $1.5B. | Intact | Capex falls below $1.4B in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “As a result, Comstock plans to spend approximately $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion in 2026 on its development and exploration projects and $100 million to $150 million on its Western Haynesville midstream system.” “2026 Budget In response to improved natural gas prices, the Company currently plans to increase the number of operating drilling rigs it is running from eight to nine during 2026.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CRK is a cyclical energy producer whose multi-year view depends on execution and sector conditions. Earnings quality is rated robust and management stable, but recent financial performance is neutral and below its industry cohort, so the thesis remains on watch.
The valuation evidence labels CRK cheap, but also shows it at a premium to peers, with a meaningful expectations gap and medium model confidence. The evidence flags a turbulent sector regime, but not the broader combination of expensive valuation, weak fundamentals, and turbulence.
Near term, production growth and operational efficiency have been priorities, with production rising between the first and second quarters of 2026. The SOCAR partnership and drilling joint venture are new capital priorities; the partnership is expected to reduce net debt, while capital spending guidance has been consistent. Earnings remain a risk: CRK missed in May, was in line in July, and the snapshot notes a run of consecutive misses.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued production and efficiency gains, disciplined capital spending, and the planned balance-sheet strengthening. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could sustain the energy-sector tailwind; misses or lower guidance from those peers could weaken it.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CRK has operational progress and a potential debt reduction to weigh against uneven recent results and elevated risk. The thesis is still developing, and its direction hinges on execution and the energy backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Production cost per Mcfe near $0.93 in 2026-Q1 | A primary condition in Comstock Resources, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is <= $0.93 per Mcfe. | Broken | Cost per Mcfe rises above $0.93 next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Natural gas and oil sales near $338.6M in 2026-Q1 | A primary condition in Comstock Resources, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $338.6 million. | Broken | Sales fall below $338.6M next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.08 → $0.40 · observed estimates
$2.36B → $1.76B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.08 | $2,358,811,680 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.08 | $2,358,811,680 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.76 | $2,435,364,935 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.08 | $2,358,811,680 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.08 | $2,358,811,680 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.08 | $2,358,811,680 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.08 | $2,358,811,680 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.73 | $2,346,464,935 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.73 | $2,346,464,935 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.98 | $2,223,523,100 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.98 | $2,223,523,100 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.72 | $2,306,161,878 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.72 | $2,306,161,878 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.72 | $2,306,161,878 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.72 | $2,306,161,878 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.72 | $2,306,161,878 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.96 | $2,225,157,400 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.72 | $2,306,161,878 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.95 | $2,224,157,400 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.95 | $2,224,157,400 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.72 | $2,306,161,878 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.72 | $2,306,161,878 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.72 | $2,306,161,878 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.72 | $2,306,161,878 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.72 | $2,306,161,878 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.72 | $2,306,161,878 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.72 | $2,306,161,878 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.68 | $2,311,661,878 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.65 | $2,311,661,878 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.65 | $2,311,661,878 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.65 | $2,311,661,878 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.65 | $2,311,661,878 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.65 | $2,278,961,877 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.65 | $2,278,961,877 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.65 | $2,278,961,877 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.65 | $2,278,961,877 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.65 | $2,278,961,877 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.65 | $2,278,961,877 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.65 | $2,278,961,877 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.65 | $2,278,961,877 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.58 | $1,961,374,176 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.58 | $1,961,374,176 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.58 | $1,961,374,176 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.58 | $1,961,374,176 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.58 | $1,961,374,176 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.58 | $1,961,374,176 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.58 | $1,961,374,176 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.57 | $1,888,790,842 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.57 | $1,864,207,659 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.57 | $1,864,207,659 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.57 | $1,864,207,659 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.57 | $1,864,207,659 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.57 | $1,864,207,659 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.57 | $1,864,207,659 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.55 | $1,853,040,992 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.55 | $1,854,124,326 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.55 | $1,854,124,326 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.55 | $1,854,124,326 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.53 | $1,853,790,992 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.53 | $1,853,790,992 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.53 | $1,853,790,992 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.53 | $1,853,790,992 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.53 | $1,853,790,992 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.53 | $1,853,790,992 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.54 | $1,848,114,762 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.54 | $1,848,114,762 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.54 | $1,848,114,762 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.54 | $1,848,114,762 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.54 | $1,848,114,762 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.54 | $1,848,114,762 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.54 | $1,848,122,608 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.54 | $1,847,416,731 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.54 | $1,847,416,731 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.54 | $1,847,416,731 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.54 | $1,847,416,731 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.53 | $1,838,339,808 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.53 | $1,838,339,808 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.53 | $1,838,339,808 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.53 | $1,838,339,808 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.53 | $1,838,339,808 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.53 | $1,838,339,808 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.53 | $1,838,339,808 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.53 | $1,838,339,808 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.52 | $1,838,339,808 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.42 | $1,766,400,617 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.42 | $1,766,400,617 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.41 | $1,776,913,217 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.41 | $1,776,913,217 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.41 | $1,776,913,217 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.41 | $1,774,913,217 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.41 | $1,767,814,541 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.41 | $1,767,814,563 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.39 | $1,758,714,563 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.39 | $1,758,714,563 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.39 | $1,758,714,563 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.39 | $1,758,714,563 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.39 | $1,758,714,541 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.39 | $1,758,714,541 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.40 | $1,758,714,541 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.40 | $1,758,714,541 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.40 | $1,758,714,541 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.40 | $1,758,714,541 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.40 | $1,758,714,541 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.40 | $1,758,714,541 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-05 | $0.40 | $1,758,714,541 | 6 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.