Comstock Resources, Inc. (CRK)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$15.26+2.07%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CRK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 59.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| -7.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 67.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 38 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CRK — earnings in line
Dated 2026-07-29
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 29, 2026, Comstock Resources, Inc. ("Comstock" or the "Company") announced financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release announcing Comstock's earnings and operating results for this period and other matters is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The earnings press release contains financial measures that are not in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States ("GAAP"). Co…
Why it matters: Confirming capex guidance of $1.4B to $1.5B shows financial discipline. It indicates how well Comstock can fund growth.
Supportive ifManagement confirms capex guidance remains at $1.4B to $1.5B during Q2 earnings call.
Worry ifManagement revises capex guidance down from $1.4B to $1.5B.
Why it matters: Sector growth trends affect Comstock's performance. A pickup in growth could boost confidence.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth picks up above 6% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth declines below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: More drilling can lead to higher production and revenue. It reflects Comstock's commitment to growth in the Western Haynesville.
Supportive ifThey will operate nine drilling rigs in 2026.
Worry ifNo increase in the number of drilling rigs from eight.
Why it matters: Meeting this capex guidance is key to funding growth and managing debt levels.
Watch forComstock reports capex spending on track within the $1.4B to $1.5B range.
Also watch forCapex spending drops well below $1.4 billion. This shows funding problems.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$205 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $623 loss on $10,000 · 6.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,477 loss on $10,000 · 54.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Natural gas prices affect Comstock's revenue and profits.
Watch forNatural gas prices rise above $4.00 per Mcf.
Also watch forNatural gas prices fall below $3.00 per Mcf.
Why it matters: Better efficiency could help the company make more money. Current trends are mixed.
Supportive ifOperating income increases by more than 20% in Q2 compared to Q1.
Worry ifOperating income goes down or stays the same in Q2 compared to Q1.
Why it matters: This investment could strengthen Comstock's balance sheet and future growth potential.
Supportive ifPinnacle cuts fixed charges by $40 million each year. This helps cash flow.
Worry ifPinnacle does not have lower fixed costs. There are no signs of better operations.
Why it matters: Production rates from new wells will show if Comstock can maintain or grow output.
Supportive ifAverage initial production rates from new wells exceed 30 MMcf per day.
Worry ifAverage initial production rates from new wells fall below 25 MMcf per day.
Why it matters: Selling part of Pinnacle may affect Comstock's money management and control. It's important to see how this changes things.
Watch forGood cash flow or gains from the Pinnacle Gas Services sale.
Also watch forBad financial effects or issues after the sale.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if revenue and profit goals are met. A miss could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifEarnings per share (EPS) meets or exceeds analyst expectations.
Less concerning ifEarnings per share (EPS) falls short of analyst expectations.
Why it matters: Investing in Pinnacle supports Comstock's midstream plan and may help future growth.
Supportive ifPinnacle has new contracts. These contracts increase their capacity.
Worry ifNo new contracts or bad news about Pinnacle's operations.
Why it matters: Natural gas prices impact revenue and profits. Price changes can quickly change how investors feel.
Watch forNatural gas prices rise above $3.00 per Mcf in Q3.
Also watch forNatural gas prices fall below $2.50 per Mcf in Q3.
Why it matters: Lower production costs improve margins and profitability. This is key for financial health.
Supportive ifProduction cost per Mcfe reported below $0.80 in Q3.
Worry ifProduction cost per Mcfe reported at or above $0.80 in Q3.
Why it matters: Growth in production shows the company is working well. This helps keep revenue steady.
Supportive ifProduction growth in Q3 exceeds 16% compared to Q2.
Worry ifProduction growth in Q3 is less than or equal to 16%.
Why it matters: The SOCAR partnership could lower debt and help finances. It will be important for operations.
Supportive ifConfirmation of reduced net debt to $1.5 billion as a result of the SOCAR deal.
Worry ifThere is no drop in net debt or bad effects from the partnership.
Why it matters: Better operational efficiency can raise margins and profits. This is key for long-term success.
Supportive ifUnhedged operating margin will go above 70% in the next quarters.
Worry ifUnhedged operating margin will drop below 70% in the next quarters.
Why it matters: Staying within budget shows smart spending. This helps with growth and financial health.
Watch forCapex reported at or below $1.5 billion for 2026.
Also watch forCapex exceeds $1.5 billion for 2026.