Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
Salesforce (CRM)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
$222.41-2.07%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
16.07 → 16.09 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 32 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 32 to 32; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CRM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Complete $25 billion accelerated share repurchase | The company plans a $25 billion accelerated share repurchase. | Intact | Failure to execute or significant delay in $25 billion share repurchase | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a large software growth business with a multi-year thesis based on revenue growth and cash generation, rather than a turnaround story. The thesis is currently intact, but the evidence is mixed: recent financial performance is strong while overall company quality and earnings quality are less convincing.
The valuation evidence calls CRM cheap versus peers, and the expectations gap is modestly negative, suggesting market expectations are not especially demanding. Pricing is described as justified, with low fragility, but confidence in the valuation reading is only medium.
Near term, management is on track with higher FY27 revenue guidance and its roughly 4%-5% cash-flow growth goal; recent quarterly cash flow also rose year over year. The $25 billion accelerated share repurchase is underway, but erratic earnings surprises, recent peer misses, elevated risk, and a possible guidance cut remain concerns.
Over the next several quarters, the thesis depends on management sustaining revenue and cash-flow delivery without cutting guidance. The setup could improve if software peers stabilize or the Fed begins cutting rates; weaker peer results or a guidance cut would challenge it.
For a 1-3 year view, strong recent performance and undemanding relative valuation support the intact thesis, but execution and sector risks keep the evidence mixed. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Operating cash flow grows 9% to 10% in FY27, supporting financial strength. |
| Intact |
| Operating cash flow growth falls below 9% in FY27 |
Cash from operations: $1.269B FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 9% YoY operating cash flow growth in FY27. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 27, 20261,269,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating margin near 21% in FY27 | A primary condition in Salesforce's published investment case. The stated target is >= 20.9% operating margin in FY27. | Improving | Operating margin falls below 20.9% in FY27 | Operating margin: 20.55% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 20.9% operating margin in FY27. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 27, 202620.546496 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to about $46 billion in FY27 | Salesforce grows revenue about 11% yearly, reaching $46 billion in FY27. | Improving | Revenue falls below $45.9 billion in FY27 | Revenue: $11.345B FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $45.9 billion in FY27. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 27, 202611,345,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$15.63 → $16.09 · observed estimates
$50.43B → $50.89B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $15.63 | $50,427,743,508 | 32 / 39 |
| 2026-07-25 | $15.63 | $50,427,743,508 | 32 / 39 |
| 2026-07-26 | $15.63 | $50,427,743,508 | 32 / 39 |
| 2026-07-27 | $15.63 | $50,427,743,508 | 32 / 39 |
| 2026-07-28 | $15.63 | $50,427,743,508 | 32 / 39 |
| 2026-07-29 | $15.63 | $50,427,743,508 | 32 / 39 |
| 2026-07-30 | $15.63 | $50,427,743,856 | 32 / 39 |
| 2026-07-31 | $15.63 | $50,427,743,856 | 32 / 39 |
| 2026-08-01 | $15.63 | $50,427,743,856 | 32 / 39 |
| 2026-08-02 | $15.63 | $50,427,743,856 | 32 / 39 |
| 2026-08-03 | $15.63 | $50,427,743,856 | 32 / 39 |
| 2026-08-04 | $15.63 | $50,427,743,856 | 32 / 39 |
| 2026-08-05 | $15.63 | $50,427,743,856 | 32 / 39 |
| 2026-08-06 | $15.63 | $50,427,743,856 | 32 / 39 |
| 2026-08-07 | $15.63 | $50,427,743,856 | 32 / 39 |
| 2026-08-08 | $15.63 | $50,427,743,856 | 32 / 39 |
| 2026-08-09 | $15.63 | $50,427,743,856 | 32 / 39 |
| 2026-08-10 | $15.63 | $50,427,743,856 | 32 / 39 |
| 2026-08-11 | $15.63 | $50,427,743,856 | 32 / 39 |
| 2026-08-12 | $15.63 | $50,427,743,856 | 32 / 39 |
| 2026-08-13 | $15.63 | $50,427,743,856 | 32 / 39 |
| 2026-08-14 | $15.63 | $50,427,743,856 | 32 / 39 |
| 2026-08-15 | $15.63 | $50,427,743,856 | 32 / 39 |
| 2026-08-16 | $15.63 | $50,427,743,856 | 32 / 39 |
| 2026-08-17 | $15.63 | $50,427,743,856 | 32 / 39 |
| 2026-08-18 | $15.63 | $50,427,743,856 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-08-19 | $15.63 | $50,427,743,856 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-08-20 | $15.63 | $50,430,600,725 | 33 / 41 |
| 2026-08-21 | $15.63 | $50,430,645,744 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-08-22 | $15.63 | $50,430,646,442 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-08-23 | $15.63 | $50,430,646,442 | 32 / 40 |
| 2026-08-24 | $15.63 | $50,430,646,442 | 33 / 41 |
| 2026-08-25 | $15.63 | $50,430,649,507 | 33 / 41 |
| 2026-08-26 | $15.63 | $50,432,419,869 | 33 / 41 |
| 2026-08-27 | $15.63 | $50,432,419,869 | 33 / 41 |
| 2026-08-28 | $15.94 | $50,696,301,071 | 31 / 39 |
| 2026-08-29 | $15.94 | $50,709,829,786 | 31 / 39 |
| 2026-08-30 | $15.94 | $50,709,829,786 | 31 / 39 |
| 2026-08-31 | $15.94 | $50,709,829,786 | 31 / 39 |
| 2026-09-01 | $15.98 | $50,709,829,786 | 31 / 39 |
| 2026-09-02 | $16.03 | $50,797,075,093 | 31 / 40 |
| 2026-09-03 | $16.03 | $50,804,378,243 | 32 / 41 |
| 2026-09-04 | $16.08 | $50,806,358,243 | 32 / 41 |
| 2026-09-05 | $16.10 | $50,814,358,243 | 32 / 41 |
| 2026-09-06 | $16.11 | $50,830,692,084 | 32 / 41 |
| 2026-09-07 | $16.11 | $50,830,692,084 | 32 / 41 |
| 2026-09-08 | $16.11 | $50,830,692,084 | 32 / 41 |
| 2026-09-09 | $16.11 | $50,830,692,152 | 32 / 41 |
| 2026-09-10 | $16.11 | $50,830,692,152 | 32 / 41 |
| 2026-09-11 | $16.11 | $50,830,692,152 | 32 / 41 |
| 2026-09-12 | $16.11 | $50,830,692,152 | 32 / 41 |
| 2026-09-13 | $16.11 | $50,830,692,152 | 32 / 41 |
| 2026-09-14 | $16.11 | $50,830,692,152 | 32 / 41 |
| 2026-09-15 | $16.11 | $50,830,692,152 | 32 / 41 |
| 2026-09-16 | $16.11 | $50,831,090,269 | 32 / 41 |
| 2026-09-17 | $16.11 | $50,831,088,939 | 32 / 41 |
| 2026-09-18 | $16.09 | $50,862,443,253 | 32 / 38 |
| 2026-09-19 | $16.09 | $50,862,443,253 | 32 / 38 |
| 2026-09-20 | $16.09 | $50,862,443,253 | 32 / 38 |
| 2026-09-21 | $16.09 | $50,862,443,253 | 32 / 38 |
| 2026-09-22 | $16.10 | $50,868,399,237 | 32 / 38 |
| 2026-09-23 | $16.10 | $50,868,399,237 | 32 / 38 |
| 2026-09-24 | $16.07 | $50,868,399,237 | 32 / 38 |
| 2026-09-25 | $16.07 | $50,868,399,237 | 32 / 38 |
| 2026-09-26 | $16.07 | $50,868,399,237 | 32 / 38 |
| 2026-09-27 | $16.07 | $50,868,399,237 | 32 / 37 |
| 2026-09-28 | $16.07 | $50,868,399,237 | 32 / 37 |
| 2026-09-29 | $16.07 | $50,868,399,237 | 32 / 37 |
| 2026-09-30 | $16.07 | $50,868,399,237 | 32 / 37 |
| 2026-10-01 | $16.07 | $50,868,399,237 | 32 / 37 |
| 2026-10-02 | $16.07 | $50,868,399,237 | 32 / 37 |
| 2026-10-03 | $16.07 | $50,868,399,237 | 32 / 37 |
| 2026-10-04 | $16.07 | $50,868,399,237 | 32 / 37 |
| 2026-10-05 | $16.07 | $50,868,399,237 | 32 / 37 |
| 2026-10-06 | $16.07 | $50,868,399,237 | 32 / 37 |
| 2026-10-07 | $16.07 | $50,868,399,237 | 32 / 37 |
| 2026-10-08 | $16.07 | $50,868,399,237 | 32 / 37 |
| 2026-10-09 | $16.07 | $50,868,399,237 | 32 / 37 |
| 2026-10-10 | $16.07 | $50,868,399,237 | 32 / 37 |
| 2026-10-11 | $16.07 | $50,868,399,237 | 32 / 37 |
| 2026-10-12 | $16.07 | $50,868,399,237 | 32 / 37 |
| 2026-10-13 | $16.07 | $50,868,399,237 | 32 / 37 |
| 2026-10-14 | $16.07 | $50,870,915,315 | 32 / 37 |
| 2026-10-15 | $16.07 | $50,870,915,315 | 32 / 37 |
| 2026-10-16 | $16.07 | $50,870,915,315 | 32 / 37 |
| 2026-10-17 | $16.07 | $50,870,915,315 | 32 / 37 |
| 2026-10-18 | $16.07 | $50,870,915,315 | 32 / 37 |
| 2026-10-19 | $16.07 | $50,870,915,315 | 32 / 38 |
| 2026-10-20 | $16.07 | $50,870,915,315 | 32 / 38 |
| 2026-10-21 | $16.07 | $50,860,752,017 | 32 / 38 |
| 2026-10-22 | $16.07 | $50,860,752,017 | 32 / 38 |
| 2026-10-23 | $16.07 | $50,860,752,017 | 32 / 38 |
| 2026-10-24 | $16.07 | $50,860,752,017 | 32 / 38 |
| 2026-10-25 | $16.07 | $50,860,752,017 | 32 / 38 |
| 2026-10-26 | $16.07 | $50,860,752,017 | 32 / 38 |
| 2026-10-27 | $16.07 | $50,882,727,358 | 32 / 37 |
| 2026-10-28 | $16.07 | $50,882,727,358 | 32 / 37 |
| 2026-10-29 | $16.07 | $50,882,719,153 | 32 / 37 |
| 2026-10-30 | $16.07 | $50,882,719,153 | 32 / 37 |
| 2026-10-31 | $16.07 | $50,882,719,153 | 32 / 37 |
| 2026-11-01 | $16.07 | $50,882,719,153 | 32 / 37 |
| 2026-11-02 | $16.07 | $50,882,719,153 | 32 / 37 |
| 2026-11-03 | $16.07 | $50,882,719,153 | 32 / 37 |
| 2026-11-04 | $16.09 | $50,894,364,500 | 32 / 37 |
| 2026-11-05 | $16.09 | $50,894,364,500 | 32 / 37 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 40 Buy / Strong Buy · 15 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 3 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Dec 2, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.