Salesforce (CRM)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$259.23-1.97%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CRM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 14.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CRM — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-05
President and Chief Engineering and Customer Success Officer — Srini Tallapragada: Mr. Srini Tallapragada stepped down from his senior roles and will transition to a Special Advisor role.
Why it matters: This deal shows Salesforce's focus on improving its AI skills. It is key for Salesforce's growth in data management.
Supportive ifThe deal will close on time in early FY27 with all approvals.
Worry ifThe deal may be delayed or not close because of regulatory problems.
Why it matters: The new accounting officer may change how the company shows its finances.
Watch forThere are good changes in financial reporting or better audit results.
Also watch forBad feedback on financial reporting or more audit problems.
Why it matters: Changes to cash flow guidance can show financial health and how well the company runs.
Watch forOperating cash flow growth reported at 9% or higher for FY27.
Also watch forIf operating cash flow growth is below 4%, it may show financial trouble.
Why it matters: Strong NNAOV growth from Slack shows good integration. It shows demand for Salesforce's products.
Supportive ifSlack NNAOV growth reported above 20% YoY.
Worry ifIf Slack NNAOV growth is below 10% YoY, it may show less demand.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$216 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $419 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,347 loss on $10,000 · 43.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Confirming the FY27 revenue guidance shows Salesforce's growth and market trust.
Supportive ifSalesforce confirms FY27 revenue guidance of $45.8B to $46.2B during the next earnings call.
Worry ifSalesforce revises FY27 revenue guidance downwards from the current range.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow growth shows good performance. It helps support future investments.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow growth reported at or above 4% YoY.
Worry ifIf operating cash flow growth is below 4% YoY, it may show problems.
Why it matters: Completing the Informatica deal will boost Salesforce's AI and data skills. This may help growth.
Supportive ifThe deal closes and becomes part of Salesforce. This can help increase revenue.
Worry ifThe deal may face delays or fail to close. This could hurt growth expectations.
Why it matters: Updates on the share buyback plan will show Salesforce's promise to give value to shareholders.
Supportive ifSalesforce will announce progress or completion of the $25 billion share buyback plan.
Worry ifSalesforce delays or cancels the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: Completing this buyback may show good use of capital. It could help the share price.
Supportive ifThe final settlement of the buyback is set for FY27 Q3.
Worry ifIf the settlement is delayed or smaller, it may show problems with capital use.
Why it matters: Updates on cash flow growth will show how well Salesforce is running its business.
Supportive ifSalesforce raises its FY27 operating cash flow growth guidance above 10%.
Worry ifSalesforce lowers its FY27 operating cash flow growth guidance below 9%.
Why it matters: Confirming this guidance shows strong demand and supports the growth narrative for Salesforce.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported within the range of $11.42 billion to $11.5 billion.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $11.42 billion.
Why it matters: This number helps us see future revenue growth and demand for Salesforce's services.
Supportive ifQ3 cRPO growth reported at or above 14% YoY.
Worry ifQ3 cRPO growth reported below 14% YoY.