Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$1.02 → $1.02 · observed estimates
Cerence, Inc. (CRNC)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$8.03-8.44%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.02 → 1.02 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CRNC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve adjusted EBITDA of $60M to $70M in FY 2026 | A primary condition in Cerence, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $60M to $70M. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $60M in FY 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$1.02 → $1.02 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a higher-risk growth and execution story, not yet a durable profit compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, but recent results include an earnings miss and the next guidance update matters.
The valuation evidence points to CRNC as cheap versus peers, while the priced-in tag is justified and fragility is low. The expectations gap is negative, so the evidence does not show a clear gap between expectations and the business setup.
Near term, revenue has risen across the latest three reported quarters, and management reaffirmed its FY 2026 revenue guidance. Adjusted EBITDA has improved and its full-year guidance was raised, while gross-margin progress is mixed and the company remains loss-making. The next report carries risk because CRNC recently missed a quarter and could cut guidance.
Over the multi-year view, the thesis depends on continued revenue growth and improved profitability, including progress toward management’s margin goals. A guidance cut would weaken the setup, while easing rates or steadier results from major technology companies could support the sector backdrop.
The 1-to-3-year thesis is intact but execution-sensitive: recent operating progress is encouraging, yet losses, an earnings miss, and elevated risk remain important constraints. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Free cash flow is expected near $71 million. |
| Intact |
| Free cash flow falls below $66M in FY 2026 |
Free cash flow: $19.62M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $66M to $76M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202619,620,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Improve gross margin to 79%-80% in FY 2026 | A primary condition in Cerence, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 79% to 80%. | Improving | Gross margin falls below 75% in FY 2026 | Gross margin: 76.04% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 79% to 80%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202676.040065 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue of $305M to $320M in FY 2026 | A primary condition in Cerence, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $305M to $320M. | Intact | Revenue falls below $305M in FY 2026 | Revenue: $69.587M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $305M to $320M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202669,587,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Revenue increased 12% year-over-year, primarily driven by the timing of fixed license contract execution and growth in Connected Services revenue, which increased more than 20% year-over-year, reflecting continued adoption of the Company’s connected solutions.” “For the full fiscal year ending September 30, 2026: • Revenue is expected to be in the range of $310 million to $314 million.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.30B → $0.30B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $1.02 | $299,009,325 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.02 | $299,009,325 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.02 | $299,009,325 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.02 | $299,009,325 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.02 | $299,009,325 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.02 | $299,009,325 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.02 | $299,009,325 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.02 | $299,009,325 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.02 | $299,009,325 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.02 | $299,009,325 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.02 | $299,009,325 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.02 | $299,009,325 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.02 | $299,009,325 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.02 | $299,009,325 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.02 | $299,009,325 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.02 | $299,009,325 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.02 | $299,009,325 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.02 | $299,009,325 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.02 | $299,009,325 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.02 | $299,009,325 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.02 | $299,009,325 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.02 | $299,009,325 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.02 | $299,009,325 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.02 | $299,009,325 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.02 | $299,009,325 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.02 | $299,009,325 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.02 | $299,009,325 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.02 | $299,009,325 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.02 | $299,009,325 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.02 | $299,009,325 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.02 | $299,009,325 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.02 | $299,009,325 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.02 | $299,009,325 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.02 | $299,009,325 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.02 | $299,009,325 | 2 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 18, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.